Weekly Outlook ES Futures

July 7-11. 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
July 06, 2025

1️⃣ Recap of Previous Week

Last week opened with a slow grind upward—low volume, controlled, and mechanical.

  • Wednesday: Value shifted higher, building in anticipation of Thursday’s data blast.

  • Thursday: Delivered, gap up and new ETH at 6333.25.

  • Friday: Half-day session. Longs liquidated fast, and the gap was filled to the tick.

📌 Key Insight:
→ The market left behind excess and poor highs.
→ A stronger market reclaims Thursday’s excess low and pushes higher.
→ A weaker market reverts below 6264 into last week’s value.

2️⃣ Monthly Volume Profile

  • July opened OTFU, holding above June’s volume ledge (6230).

  • Lose 6230, and buyers risk a retest of 6165–6155.

  • 6274 is the line in the sand—build volume above it to fill the gap and open upside continuation.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Structure: OTFU

  • POC sits within prior value, but price remains above the ATH zone

  • Indicates: Buyers defending structure + silent accumulation

  • Low volume builds = potential breakout base

4️⃣ Weekly Volume Profile

  • Still in OTFU mode

  • Weekly low = 6263.25, which is 265 points above the previous week’s low

  • Value has cleanly shifted above last week’s value area

Market is moving up the staircase, until a step breaks.

5️⃣ Daily Candles Structure

  • Mon–Tues: Balanced, consolidating VA

  • Wednesday: Breakout day

  • Friday: Trap sprung → gap fill, weakness confirmed

Friday’s fade came with thin participation, watch if that weakness expands Monday.

6️⃣ 4-Hour Structure

  • Uptrend remains intact

  • Price stays above Yearly VWAP 1st dev

  • Single prints and imbalance clusters stacking on the VP

  • Monthly VWAP at 6268 = Key Support if downside re-engages

Use these imbalances for fade or breakout trap setups.

7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🎯 Line in the Sand (LIS): 6254
→ Anchored at Wednesday’s RTH single prints.

🔼 Bullish Scenario

  • Hold LIS → defend above monthly VWAP (6268)

  • Break higher = run toward 6377 (2nd dev resistance)

  • Momentum above 6333 → Squeeze accelerates toward MAX ALPHA zone

🔽 Bearish Scenario

  • Failure at 6274–6280 → re-enter last week’s VA

  • Below 6254 → targets:

    • First: 6190 (POC below LVN)

    • Then: Gap zones near 6165/6155

  • Below 6190 → control flips to sellers structurally

⚔️ Strategic Focus:

  • Be reactive near 6254–6268

  • Trend strength = continuation setups

  • Weakness = mean reversion or imbalance fades

A more detailed Plan for daytrading will be posted tomorrow.

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VOMA = Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer.
It’s not an indicator. It’s a system.

✅ Combines:

  • Options data (GEX, open interest, skew)

  • Volume profile mechanics (POC shifts, LVNs, Value migration)

  • Live order flow: Footprint, VWAP, DOM, Delta traps

With VOMA, you:

  • Track where institutions build, defend, and trap

  • Build pre-market gameplans that react, not predict

  • Trade the narrative the tape is telling you—not the one in your head

VOMA = Strategic Dominance.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59