Weekly Outlook: ES Futures

May 26–30, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 26, 2025

1️⃣ Recap of Previous Week

After printing a new higher high early in the week, ES reversed hard, dropping back below value and outside last week’s range. The goal? Retest the May 12th gap. Friday gave us the reaction: price tapped the monthly VWAP and bounced clean. Bulls defended, but conviction still needs to be confirmed.

2️⃣ Monthly Volume Profile

The monthly chart holds steady in a double distribution above April’s VAH. We continue to coil within a 5-month range, with 5900+ remaining the acceptance battleground. As long as May closes above April’s value high, structure leans bullish, but confirmation is everything.

Monthly VP

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

We remain OTFU, but the POC at 5906 is telling. Value is building in the lower distribution, hinting at deeper exploration. That zone aligns closely with March’s sell structure, making it a pressure point for both sides. Watch for either a reclaim or deeper fill.

10 Day VP

4️⃣ Weekly Volume Profile

Still OTFU, but not without risk. After Monday’s high broke structure, selling pressure increased, leading to a clean double distribution into Friday’s bounce. This week? It’s all about whether ES reclaims the 5906 cluster or slips back toward older support.

Weekly VP

5️⃣ Daily Candle Structure

We closed the week in OTFD, with Friday balancing just above the prior Monday low. This could be consolidation… or it could be a pause before a trend shift. The mission now is clear: determine if last week’s LTF pullback was just a correction or the start of something deeper.

6️⃣ 4-Hour Structure

As we mentioned in last week’s outlook, failure to break 6005 would drag us into the LVNs below—and that’s exactly what happened. For now, the structure hasn’t changed. 6005 remains the magnet above, but sellers still control the tempo unless reclaimed.

7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Line in the Sand (LIS): 5805
→ Monthly VWAP confluence + Friday's retest zone

🔼 Bull Plan:
Reclaim 5850 → Push through 5906 POC → Stretch toward 6005

🔽 Bear Plan:
Fail at 5805 → Drive into 5744 → Target March’s composite support at 5670

🔚 Final Thoughts

This week will tell us everything: Is the uptrend still alive or was last week the start of a shift?
All eyes on 5805–5906. That zone will determine breakout or breakdown.
Stay sharp. Stay disciplined. Let's dominate May’s final stretch.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

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