Weekly ES Futures Outlook | June 17–21, 2025

Rollover + FOMC + OPEX | Prepare for high volatility, false breaks, and liquidity traps

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 15, 2025

⚠️ Rollover Alert

This week marks the quarterly futures rollover from ESM25 (June) to ESU25 (September).

  • Price Difference: ~52.25 points (ESU25 trades higher than ESM25)

  • Volume (Friday Close):
     • ESM25 → 2,051,514
     • ESU25 → 870,921

✅ We stay on ESM25 for levels until ESU25 surpasses in both volume & open interest.
Expect distorted price action, weird tape, and sudden liquidity holes mid-week as players shift contracts. Trade lighter. Confirm more.

Also we note FOMC Wednesday and Quarterly Opex End of the week

📰 1️⃣ Recap of Previous Week

The week formed a 4-day breakout balance centered around 6025.
Friday saw a sharp rejection below weekly VWAP, triggering a drop that tested the June 5 low, raising the question: Was that a shakeout or the first sign of serious distribution?

📊 2️⃣ Monthly Volume Profile

Structure remains OTFU, building value above April’s POC.
But bulls are struggling to cleanly reclaim March’s range high, hinting at possible exhaustion. Acceptance above 6100 still required to shift long-term sentiment.

🔍 3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

OTFU structure is intact.
We remain stacked above the last two POCs, with Friday closing just above Previous VAH.
Short-term pressure building toward a decision.

🧭 4️⃣ Weekly Volume Profile

Still OTFU with buyers attempting to break back into the February composite range (5988–6096).
If they fail to hold the shelf around 6020–6030, downside velocity may pick up fast.

🕯 5️⃣ Daily Candle Structure

OTFD emerged Friday.
We saw a close back inside prior value, erasing the breakout structure and closing below the prior weekly POC.
A second red daily close could invite more downside interest.

🧱 6️⃣ 4H Structure

The bullish structure is flashing caution:
Friday’s low wicked just below 5928, signaling the first break of structure since early June.
If price drops into the 6008–5930 LVN, we could see an acceleration to the downside.
Sellers are circling.

🎯 7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS (Line in the Sand) → 5837.00
 Last major swing high before March’s downtrend. Bias flips below.

🐂 Bulls Need:

  • Hold above 6005 and push above 6074

  • Target 6120 → The last untested high before the major downtrend began

  • Watch for VWAP reclaim, stacked delta at 6025, or absorption trap under 5980

🐻 Bears Want:

  • Loss of 5980/5930 LVN = momentum flush

  • First major target = 5595, the edge of the primary HVN

  • Breakdown confirmation = failed LIS reclaim, negative delta, + heavy sell sweeps through volume voids

🧠 VOMA Breakdown: What Powers This Outlook?

Our Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer (VOMA) system fuses options market data, institutional positioning, and volume flow to define real-time inflection points and probability-weighted reaction zones.

Every LIS, every deviation, and every trap we highlight is calculated from VOMA’s precision models, not gut feel.

✅ We trade these levels live every day in Discord.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59