Wednesday, March 26, 2025

ES Daily Gameplan

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 26, 2025

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Overview

After Monday’s bullish gap into the March 9 Globex zone, ES coiled tightly between 5802–5800.
Buyers still hold the reins—but the market is clearly taking a breather.
With durable goods and crude oil inventories hitting this morning, prepare for fresh directional flow.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • Value is shifting upward, POC remains anchored at 5670

  • New volume building around 5816 → also a naked POC from prior period

  • This zone is the current battleground → watch for either balance or breakout

10 Day

Weekly & Daily Structure

  • ES now pressing on the naked POC from last week (5816)

  • Tuesday’s candle was an inside bar → use its high/low for direction

  • Structure still supports bullish bias if 5816 holds

weekly and daily

2H Order Flow & Delta

  • Above VWAP and holding → buyers have momentum

  • Sellers attempted a fade under 5816, but no follow-through

  • Resistance is thick at 5825–5830 → breakout must come with forceNY TPO Profile

  • Textbook balance on Tuesday

  • Held above Monday’s POC (5806) and closed right in value

  • A break above or below 5816 signals today’s intent

2hr Delta

1H Chart & Strike Prices

  • Tight strike band → High: 5850 / Low: 5830

  • Globex sitting below both

  • This kind of tight zone breeds traps → fade the first fake move

🎯 Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5830 (Strike low + recent rejection zone)

Bulls:

  • Entry: 5834

  • Targets: 5843 → 5859 → 5875

Bears:

  • Entry: 5827

  • Targets: 5805 → 5791 → 5775

GamePlan

Final Notes & Cautions

  • We’re sitting inside a Globex gap + balanced zone

  • Durable Goods & Oil could rip the lid off this range

  • Wait for confirmation at your LIS. No chasing. No guessing.

  • Discipline > Prediction

Daily Breakdown drops before the NY bell.
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