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Monday, June 9, 2025 | Daily ES Futures Outlook

Monday, June 9, 2025 | Daily ES Futures Outlook

The breakout has arrived, but does it have teeth?

Jan Verhelst
June 09, 2025

In partnership with

1️⃣ Market Overview & Key Events

No major economic releases today. After last week’s slow grind and indecision, the market begins the new week with its eyes on one thing: follow-through. Watch for a sentiment shift post-6000 breakout and how we build around key structure levels.

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2️⃣ Recap of Previous Session

Friday finally gave us the long-awaited push above 6000 after two failed breakout attempts earlier in the week. The move wasn’t explosive, but it did clear the hurdle. Price held steady into the close , buyers defended the breakout zone, but conviction was lacking. If bulls can hold above, momentum builds. Fall back under 6000, and it’s back to balance.

3️⃣ Volume Profile Insights

The 10-day volume profile remains one-time framing up (OTFU) with fresh volume developing above March’s Value Area Low. The POC at 6017 is gaining gravity. If we push and hold above it, the door reopens to reclaim the former breakout structure. A failure here, and we risk fading back into prior congestion.

4️⃣ Market Structure Review

The weekly profile is OTFU, but we’re still coiling inside last week’s value, above the 5981 POC. It’s a pivotal zone. Daily structure is also OTFU but watch the edges of Friday’s P-profile closely. If bulls want a continuation leg, they must convert the VA high into support and push into 6025 and beyond.

5️⃣ Order Flow & VWAP (2H Chart)

During Globex, we saw a clean breakout from the prior weekly VWAP FBO, followed by price stalling around the 6000 psychological zone. We’re seeing a tug-of-war — buyers are probing for continuation, but sellers haven’t left the field. Watch delta at VWAP retests and bid stack aggression at 6005–6010.

6️⃣ NY TPO Profile

Friday printed a balanced session, luring breakout traders only to consolidate. The profile trapped both sides. An open above Friday’s VA could lead to a directional move. An open inside would signal more accumulation. Watch for early imbalance to set the tone.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

The uptrend is still intact. Price action is hugging the weekly VWAP, with clear absorption battles around 6014. Strike price zones today are hovering around the upper edge of balance. If we stay above VWAP and hold volume at the highs, bulls get the green light.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS (Line in the Sand): 6009.00
Anchored at the 0% VOMA deviation, center of today’s volume shelf and near overnight VWAP.

🎯 Bulls:

T1: 6015.99 (+1σ)
T2: 6022.22 (+2σ)
T3: 6030.00 (GEX magnet)
📈 Breakout requires stacked delta + aggressive bids from LIS.

🎯 Bears:

T1: 6003.51 (-1σ)
T2: 5997.28 (-2σ)
T3: 5991.00 (-3σ / VOMA cluster)
📉 Watch for rejection off LIS with heavy delta and passive absorption.

🔍 Confirmation Triggers:

Footprint trap at LIS (6009)
DOM shift at VWAP or overnight low retest
Delta surge + responsive flow near the edge of Friday’s P-profile

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

We’re still on the knife’s edge. If price ping-pongs between 5999–6011 with low volume and no conviction, stand down, that’s premium chop territory. Patience pays here. Let VOMA levels and session structure guide your timing. High-conviction trades will come if you don’t force them.

🔍 What is VOMA?

VOMA stands for Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer, our in-house trading system that maps real-time dealer behavior, liquidity pockets, and volume-based inflection zones. It’s built for intraday futures precision.

We trade it live every day in our Discord, using custom indicators and institutional-style playbooks.

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🧠 “You don’t need to catch every move , just the cleanest ones. Let the market come to you.”

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