March Week 3

Rollover Week: A Key Shift in the Market

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 16, 2025

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A new week, a critical transition: rollover week is here. 

This means shifting volumes, changing liquidity, and new contract adjustments. Smart traders will keep a close eye on these transitions, as they often bring unexpected moves and shifts in market structure.

Recap of Last Week: A Bearish Battle with a Strong Comeback

  • Heavy selling early in the week confirmed bearish control. Lower highs & lower lows dominated.

  • Aggressive selling near 5500 triggered a liquidity sweep, but buyers fought back at 5557.

  • Strong recovery into the weekly close at 5640, pushing ES back above the prior daily value area.

  • Potential momentum shift heading into this week.

Monthly Volume Profile: A Changing Landscape

  • OTFD remains intact with a high at 6000.50.

  • Double distribution forming, with the key level at 5662 (September’s VAL).

  • VA low dropped 215 points, POC fell 146 points, and monthly value is down 140 points on average—a sharp but less aggressive decline compared to last week.

Monthly VP

10-Day Volume Profile: Buyers Trying to Reclaim Value

  • OTFD remains, with a high at 5853.50, aligning with last period’s VAL.

  • POC dropped 201 points, converging with September’s POC.

  • Week closed inside September’s VA—holding here could lead to a shift higher, but failure targets 5489.75 (August’s POC).

10Day VP

Weekly Volume Profile: A B-Shaped Profile & Ongoing Liquidation

  • OTFD remains, with a high at 5757.75.

  • B-shaped profile suggests long liquidation is still in play, trapping late buyers and forcing exits.

  • If bulls can break and hold above 5650 (LVN), we could see sentiment shift.

📌 5650 is the battleground—above it, buyers get a shot. Below it, bears remain in full control.

Weekly VP

Daily & 4H Structure: Range-Bound & Testing Key Levels

  • ES in a 4-day balance between 5675 and 5509.

  • Since breaking 5794 on March 6, the market has been in a clear downtrend with minimal buying pressure.

  • Buyers must reclaim and hold 5652 & the CPI high 5675 to shift momentum.

  • Failure means a continuation towards 5509 and potentially lower.

Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears – The Key Levels

 LIS: 5650 (Weekly High CPI not included, start of the monthly LVN)

Bullish Plan:

  • Reclaim 5650, push through poor monthly structure, and attempt to close the weekly opening gap at 5774.

Bearish Plan:

  • Defend below 5650, maintain control, and target 5313 as the next significant downside move.

Weekly Levels

7ïžâƒŁ Final Thoughts: Rollover Week Brings Change—Stay Sharp

🚹 Rollover week means volume is shifting—adjust your charts!

 If rolling contracts, delete old levels and identify new structure-based areas. 

Market conditions can change fast as traders transition into new contracts—watch volume shifts carefully. 

A detailed day trading plan drops tomorrow before open—don’t miss it!

đŸ“© Share this newsletter: Forward this to a trader who needs to prepare for rollover week.

Stay focused, stay prepared, and let’s dominate the week ahead.

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