ES Weekly Summary

ES Weekly Summary

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 23, 2025

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🎥 Watch it in detail on YouTube (under 4 mins): https://youtu.be/_hwzZn2fLNE

After a week marked by rollovers and options expiry, ES found some footing. Price traded in a 120-point range (5650.75 to 5770.50) and closed at 5718, 26 points above last week.

Buyers defended 5650 with conviction, but the key question now: Will they hold it… or get flushed?

🧠 Important Context

  • OPEX & Rollover = Noise. Last week’s flows weren’t conviction-based.

  • Price held above March 12’s key buy zone (5650) and built value toward the close.

Monthly Volume Profile

  • OTFD still intact (High: 6052.50)

  • Monthly Value shifted up 53 pts, but VAL remains deep from Feb’s selloff.

  • Double Distribution above 5700 forming → Bullish if accepted.

  • 🔑 Key Reference Levels:

    • Sept POC: 5714

    • Aug POC: 5539

    Monthlu VP

10-Day Volume Profile

  • OTFD still intact (High: 6066.75)

  • Profile shifted 66 pts higher on avg

  • Volume clustering between 5653-5686

  • Friday’s close = Right at VAH → Balance confirmed

10 Day VP

Weekly Volume Profile

  • Profile is tightening → Market coiling

  • VA Width: Only 60 pts (5665–5724)

  • Price built above last week’s POC (5670)

  • Attempting to reclaim prior VAL at 5783

Weekly VP, Daily Candles

Daily Candle Structure

  • Inside 5-day balance

  • Close above midpoint = slight buyer edge

  • Still within trap-prone range

đź“Ś Wait for confirmation at extremes.

4-Hour Structure

  • Since March 6’s break of 5846 → clean downtrend

  • 5651 = Major support base

  • 5720–5795 = Range that needs cleaning if bulls are serious

4hr Structural

Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

đź“Ť LIS = 5722 (HTF High-Volume Node Ledge)

Bullish Plan

  • Hold above 5722

  • Targets: 5785

  • Watch for hedging flows pushing through the zone

Bearish Plan

  • Fail at 5722, break down

  • Targets: 5655, gamma stack & composite shelf at ESH25 settle

Levels week 4

🚨 Final Thoughts & Warnings

  • Last week was chaos. This week = cleaner, but don’t relax.

  • Fakeouts still dominate until conviction returns.

  • Look for rebalancing moves, not breakout chases.

Use this weekly map to align with the Sentinel Playbook inside TradeZella.

đź“Ž Sentinel PlayBook

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