ES Weekly Outlook

May Week 3 | Breakout or Bull Trap?

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 18, 2025

Welcome back, traders.
We enter Week 3 of May riding a fresh wave of bullish momentum. Last week’s breakout was clean but was it a true shift in control, or just fuel for the next trap? Let’s get tactical.

📈 1. Recap of Previous Week

  • The week started with a strong gap up that obliterated the 7-day range.

  • Monthly and weekly VWAP? Left in the dust.

  • ES surged straight into the 6005 seller zone—our previously marked high-liquidity magnet.

🔍 Bulls didn’t just show up, they ran the board all week. But now, the real test begins: Can they hold the high ground?

📊 2. Monthly Volume Profile

  • Monthly remains balanced but bullish.

  • We’re now trading above March’s VAH, leaning toward acceptance.

  • ⚠️ The 5900 POC could turn magnetic again if bulls stumble.

🔽 Below 5820? There’s a double distribution sitting there, ready to trap.

Monthly VP

📉 3. 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Still OTFU — the uptrend is active.

  • But we’re printing a P-shape profile, hinting at short-covering, not initiative buying.

📌 Eyes on 5846 and 5837. If these crack, momentum fades fast.

10 Day

🧭 4. Weekly Volume Profile

  • Weekly profile also OTFU with a compressed 100-point Value Area.

  • A tight VA after a big move = coiling for the next leg… or primed to trap the breakout buyers.

🕵️ Let the Monday range develop before taking sides.

weekly

🕯️ 5. Daily Candle Structure

  • ✅ Tuesday: Short-covering reversal

  • ⏸️ Wednesday: Pause + balance

  • 🔥 Thursday: Break through VAH

  • 🧱 Friday: Breakout retest + close strong

Price is clean and directional, but strength needs follow-through this week.

daily

🕓 6. 4-Hour Structure

  • Structure = 📈 bullish.

  • Broke the March 25 FBO at 5776

  • Tagged 6005, a major prior selling level

This week? We find out if 6005 is resistance… or launchpad.

⚔️ 7. Game Plan: Bulls vs Bears

📌 LIS: 6005
This is the seller’s front porch. Above = open sky. Below = turbulence.

Bulls Above 6005:
🎯 6072 → 6124 → 6182 HVN (Nov 2024)

Bears Below 6005:
🎯 5933 → 5846 → 5725 LVN magnet

Gameplan

📣 Final Thoughts

Last week was breakout confirmation.
This week is breakout validation.

Let Monday breathe. 6005 is everything.
Above it? Fuel the rocket.
Below it? Follow the trap.


Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Discord channel: https://whop.com/clavis-2/ 

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59 

Bulenox Propfirm (trusted): https://bulenox.com/member/aff/go/renkoflow