ES Weekly Outlook

May Week 3 | Breakout or Bull Trap?

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 18, 2025

Welcome back, traders.
We enter Week 3 of May riding a fresh wave of bullish momentum. Last week’s breakout was clean but was it a true shift in control, or just fuel for the next trap? Let’s get tactical.

📈 1. Recap of Previous Week

  • The week started with a strong gap up that obliterated the 7-day range.

  • Monthly and weekly VWAP? Left in the dust.

  • ES surged straight into the 6005 seller zone—our previously marked high-liquidity magnet.

🔍 Bulls didn’t just show up, they ran the board all week. But now, the real test begins: Can they hold the high ground?

📊 2. Monthly Volume Profile

  • Monthly remains balanced but bullish.

  • We’re now trading above March’s VAH, leaning toward acceptance.

  • ⚠️ The 5900 POC could turn magnetic again if bulls stumble.

🔽 Below 5820? There’s a double distribution sitting there, ready to trap.

Monthly VP

📉 3. 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Still OTFU — the uptrend is active.

  • But we’re printing a P-shape profile, hinting at short-covering, not initiative buying.

📌 Eyes on 5846 and 5837. If these crack, momentum fades fast.

10 Day

🧭 4. Weekly Volume Profile

  • Weekly profile also OTFU with a compressed 100-point Value Area.

  • A tight VA after a big move = coiling for the next leg… or primed to trap the breakout buyers.

🕵️ Let the Monday range develop before taking sides.

weekly

🕯️ 5. Daily Candle Structure

  • ✅ Tuesday: Short-covering reversal

  • ⏸️ Wednesday: Pause + balance

  • 🔥 Thursday: Break through VAH

  • 🧱 Friday: Breakout retest + close strong

Price is clean and directional, but strength needs follow-through this week.

daily

🕓 6. 4-Hour Structure

  • Structure = 📈 bullish.

  • Broke the March 25 FBO at 5776

  • Tagged 6005, a major prior selling level

This week? We find out if 6005 is resistance… or launchpad.

⚔️ 7. Game Plan: Bulls vs Bears

📌 LIS: 6005
This is the seller’s front porch. Above = open sky. Below = turbulence.

Bulls Above 6005:
🎯 6072 → 6124 → 6182 HVN (Nov 2024)

Bears Below 6005:
🎯 5933 → 5846 → 5725 LVN magnet

Gameplan

📣 Final Thoughts

Last week was breakout confirmation.
This week is breakout validation.

Let Monday breathe. 6005 is everything.
Above it? Fuel the rocket.
Below it? Follow the trap.

What Is your Weekly Bias

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Discord channel: https://whop.com/clavis-2/ 

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59 

Bulenox Propfirm (trusted): https://bulenox.com/member/aff/go/renkoflow