ES Weekly Outlook

April Week 2 Reset or Collapse?

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 06, 2025

April Week 2 | “Reset or Collapse?

📺 Watch Full Breakdown on YouTube
https://youtu.be/O1r5hgTiorI

🛑 Heads Up
I’ll be off-grid from Thursday, April 10 to April 18.
No live updates during this period.
The next full game plan drops Sunday, April 20. Prepare accordingly.

🔥 Recap – Last Week Was War

Let’s not sugarcoat it: April started with a kill candle.

The question was: Can buyers defend the battlefield and reclaim structure?
The answer was swift: Absolutely not.

  • ES dropped 361 points from high to close

  • Blew through August, February, and January VALs

  • Closed the week at 5110.25, miles below 5773 resistance

  • This wasn't a pullback—it was a market regime shift

🧭 Monthly Volume Profile – Freefall Mode

  • Structure: One Time Framing Down (OTFD)

  • Triple Distribution: Lowest zone forming below 5316

  • Value Shift: Dropped 296 points from the prior month

  • Conclusion: Price is searching for new equilibrium, and finding none

  • No resistance from bulls = no brakes on this decline

Monthly VP

📉 10-Day Volume Profile – Buyers MIA

  • Still OTFD, dropping an avg of 81 points per session

  • Building a double distribution below 5358.75 (August’s VAL)

  • Volume is accepting lower structure—and that’s the real danger

10 Day VP

📊 Weekly Volume Profile – This Isn’t a Correction

  • High: 5773.25

  • VA Range: 297 points (insanely wide)

  • Double Distribution anchored below 5316

  • Next Major Level: 5014 (January’s structural floor)

Weekly and Daily candles

🕯️ Daily Candle Structure – The Trapdoor

  • Friday = Full Liquidation Day

  • Opened below value → failed bounce → flushed straight into the abyss

  • Closed the week at 5110.25, down 361 points from the high

  • Textbook breakdown. Buyers didn’t show up.

⏱️ 4-Hour Structure – Broken

  • Failed reclaim of uptrend at 5527

  • Structure snapped at 5533 and never recovered

  • A massive volume spike sits just above 5105

  • That spike? It’s now a battleground. Bulls either hold it or we see 4K sooner than you think

🎯 Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS (Line in the Sand): 5112

This is your first must-hold level for bulls. Anything below, and it’s pure bear momentum.

🐂 Bulls Need to:

  • Reclaim 5112, build structure above it

  • Target the 5435 volume gap

  • Break OTFD to have any hope of reversing this collapse

🐻 Bears Are Targeting:

  • 4920 – major prior resistance, now a likely demand zone

  • If that cracks? August lows and beyond come into play

4 hr and weekly gameplan

💥 Final Thoughts – You’re Either Prepared or Exposed

This is not the week for sloppy trades.
This is not the week to "feel it out."
This is a market that’s clearing the board.

🔒 Lock in structure
✂️ Cut position size
🧠 Let the levels guide your setups

We’re operating in a high-volatility, high-risk, high-reward environment.

📥 Don’t Miss Tomorrow’s Pre-Market Gameplan

Fresh setups, new LIS zones, and a surgical read on overnight Globex action—all delivered before the bell.

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Reminder:
If this landed in your Promotions tab, drag it to Primary so you don’t miss next week’s moves.

—

Clavis Trading | MarketFlow Genius
Where structure meets precision.
Let’s get after it.

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