ES Weekly Outlook

April Week 1

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 30, 2025

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🎥 Watch the Breakdown on YouTube (under 4 mins):
https://youtu.be/a4DFw0qLJzQ

New Month, Same Rules

It’s Q2.
But let’s not act like a new month changes the game.

Last week reminded us: momentum fades—structure always wins.
The breakout failed, volume told the truth, and ES dropped 204 points from the highs.

This week? The market’s loading a bigger move. Let’s break it down.

Recap of Last Week

  • Started strong: broke above 5816, but failed quickly.

  • Midweek: back below 5771, structure cracked.

  • Friday: full breakdown → closed beneath prior week’s range.

Momentum died. Balance returned. Pressure is building.

Monthly Volume Profile

  • Still one-time-framing down.

  • Clear double distribution developing.

  • Closed below VAL—that’s confirmation of weakness.

Buyers’ challenge? Rebuild above 5670 or get steamrolled.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • Volume is coiling.

  • We’re building inside last period’s value → prep for expansion.

  • 5670 = key confluence zone (POC, structure, composite level).

→ That’s our pivot for the entire week.

10 Day

Weekly Volume Profile

  • Lost the OTFU at 5650.75.

  • Ended with a triple distribution → indecision + weakness.

đź‘€ Key zones:

  • Single prints: 5610–5617

  • 5670 POC = battleground

→ First move of the week will tell us everything.

weekly VP and daily candles

Daily Structure

  • Thursday gave us a doji → hesitation.

  • Friday confirmed it: sharp drop, sellers in control.

The failed breakout flushed weak longs.
Now we wait to see if buyers have anything left in the tank.

⏱ 4-Hour Structure

  • Temporary uptrend? Broken.

  • Higher-low structure failed.

  • We’re in a clear downtrend now.

🛑 Supports to watch: 5587 and 5561

Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

đź“Ś Line in the Sand: 5670

  • Weekly 100% range extension

  • 4H POC

  • NY session excess (Friday)

🔹 Bullish Plan:
→ Reclaim and hold above 5670
→ Targets: 5730 → 5783 → 5835 (Last Week’s VAH)

🔸 Bearish Plan:
→ Stay below 5670
→ Targets: 5610 → 5587 → 5527 (August POC)

Gameplan for the week

⚠️ Final Thoughts

New quarter.
Same ruthless tape.
Don’t slack just because it’s Q2.

Last week shook the tree.
This week? We’ll see who’s still standing.

Let price prove itself.
Trade the levels, not the noise.
And watch 5670 like a sniper.

More to come in tomorrow’s day plan.
Let’s dominate the week.

— Jan
Marketflow Genius


Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59
Bulenox Propfirm (trusted): https://bulenox.com/member/aff/go/renkoflow