ES Weekly Outlook

March Week 2

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 09, 2025

The market stands at a turning point. Last week, a fierce battle unfolded between buyers and sellers, centering around one key question: Would ES hold or break further down? By Friday, sellers made their move, breaking below the crucial 5794 level.

Monday began with a bullish attempt that quickly reversed, marking the start of consistent selling pressure. By Tuesday, ES was testing critical support, and the rest of the week was a slow but relentless push downward. Buyers now face an urgent decision—can they regain lost ground, or is deeper selling ahead?

Monthly Volume Profile 📉

  • ES shifted below 5809 on Tuesday, signaling a return to balance.

  • VAH matches February’s range low; volume is building below October’s breakout area.

  • Aggressive selling pressure led to a 313-point drop last week.

  • 📌 Buyers must act quickly to prevent lower value zones from becoming the new normal.

10-Day Volume Profile 📌

  • POC moved down sharply by 201 points to 5764, clearly indicating downward momentum.

  • ES broke the September 10 POC but found temporary support near 5671.20.

  • Continued seller strength could open targets much lower.

  • 📌 A reclaim of 5794–5811 may offer short-term relief, though sellers remain dominant.

Weekly Volume Profile 🎯

  • Market remains in One Time Framing Down (OTFD) with a weekly high at 6000.50.

  • Heavy volume accumulated between 5845.50–5731, anchoring POC at 5764.

  • Levels to Watch:

    • 📌 5906 – September 10 POC

    • 📌 5475 – August 5 POC

Daily Candle Structure 🕯️

  • Daily OTFD remains firmly intact; recent high at 5791, next major support at 5525 (September 6 low).

  • Sellers have significant room to push lower without notable buyer response yet.

4-Hour Chart Insights ⏳

  • Confirmed downtrend continues after breakdown below 5794 and establishment of Lower Low at 5743.

  • Uptrend will resume only with a clear reclaim above 5999.50 (previous Lower High).

  • Until that happens, sellers remain in complete control.

Final Thoughts & Next Steps 🚨

We're facing a pivotal market moment: either buyers step up now, or we're heading significantly lower. Current structure is fragile, and downward momentum is strong. This week will likely shape market sentiment for the rest of March.

🔔 Stay tuned! A detailed game plan will be released tomorrow before market open on all social channels.

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