ES Post Tariff GamePlan

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 03, 2025

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🧭 1. Market Outlook: Tariff Shock Fallout

Today’s environment is volatile by design, not by accident.

We’re dealing with:

  • Trade in Goods report

  • Jobless Claims

→ Both hit pre-market and can spark fast directional moves.

2. What Just Happened? (Wednesday Recap)

  • Early Globex selling was absorbed.

  • Bulls took price up into our exact resistance target at 5725.

  • Then came the tariff shock, and ES collapsed, slicing through structure like a blade through butter.

  • Final tally: 214 points down. Let that sink in.

3. 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Both recent value areas? Gone.

  • We’re now building volume around 5551 (August POC).

  • If 5551 fails, the next major support is 5387.50.

10 Dat VP

4. Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Weekly: Holding balance with a clean volume ledge at 5625.

  • Daily: OTFU broken. Momentum shifted.
    We’ve rejected the 200% VA range and are now testing old structure below 5527.
    Bulls are on the clock—if they don’t act fast, the floor opens.

Weekly profiles, daily structure

5. 2H Delta & Order Flow

  • Strength capped at 5725 (Wednesday’s final target).

  • Sellers dominated the close.

  • Heavy delta prints confirm aggressive selling—not just drift.
    → Unless bulls reclaim narrative early, expect continuation lower.

2hr Delta

6. NY TPO Structure

  • Yesterday’s profile = textbook excess.

  • Price pushed into Monday’s lower distribution, then rejected hard.

  • Bulls must reclaim this zone for any reversal to stick.
    Fail to do so, and the auction continues lower.

NY TPO

7. 1H Chart & Strike Prices

  • Globex attempted a gap fill—failed.

  • New range: A = 5481 low, B = 5585 ceiling.

  • Strike range is expanding, signaling institutions pricing in risk.
    → Don’t get cute. Size down and trade tight.

🎯 8. Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5585
(Volume ledge, failed gap zone, emotional pivot)

🟢 Bulls:

Entry: 5590
Targets:
→ 5602 (gap fill)
→ 5616 (low-volume node)
→ 5630 (weekly re-entry zone)

Conditions:
→ Only long if we reclaim and hold above LIS with control.

🔴 Bears:

Entry: 5582 (or fade near LIS)
Targets:
→ 5550 (prior VA low)
→ 5526 (August breakout)
→ 5500 (psych + LVN)

Conditions:
→ Ideal setup is rejection at LIS or lower high on bounce.

Gameplan

🧠 9. Final Thoughts & Tactical Reminder

Tariff-driven moves don’t follow logic. They follow liquidity.

⚠️ Today’s structure is broken. There’s no need to guess the direction, just react to levels and cut the noise.

Patience pays. Chasing kills.
Protect your capital. Make them earn every tick.

See you in tomorrow’s breakdown.

Jan
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