ES Outlook & Gameplan

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 30, 2025

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🔥 1️⃣ Important News & Events

Today’s macro calendar is stacked:

  • US GDP

  • Treasury refunding

  • Personal income & spending

  • Crude oil inventories

And it’s the final trading day of April. Translation? Volatility is inbound.

🔍 2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

  • Tuesday started slow but delivered a clean lift off Monday’s Value Area High (5565).

  • Buyers held the LVN, leaving behind a double distribution, signaling bulls are still in charge—for now.

📈 3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Holding above March’s 5561 pivot and prior breakout at 5528.75.

  • Structure is tightening.

  • We’re coiling. Energy’s building. A breakout is loading.

10 Day

🗺️ 4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Value stacking above last week’s POC (5473.25).

  • Volume clustering around 5561–5558.

  • If bulls defend this zone, May could open with force.

Week and day

📊 5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Buyers defended below weekly VWAP again.

  • Push above 5590 was muted, but overall delta remains bullish-biased.

2 hr Delta

🧠 6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Double distribution formed above Monday’s excess high (5578.75).

  • Closed above VAH — bullish signal.

  • If we open above 5581.75, that’s your first green light for continuation.

TPO

🕒 7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Uptrend intact above LIS at 5550.

  • Cleared the 4H VAH at 5564, now hovering inside a thin LVN pocket.

  • Eyes on monthly open: 5644.25 — that’s where bulls want to drive.

🎯 8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS (Line in the Sand): 5570 – Volume ledge + strike midpoint.

🟦 Bull Plan

  • Hold 5570 → Targets: 5597 → 5620 → 5650

🟥 Bear Plan

  • Rejection at 5570 → Targets: 5550 → 5521 → 5500

⚠️ 9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

  • End-of-month flows and news = landmines.

  • Don’t force trades into volatility spikes.

  • Let price confirm, then strike. This market rewards discipline, not ego.

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Have a green day,

Jan


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