ES Outlook & Gameplan

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 01, 2025

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🌪️ 1️⃣ Important News & Events

First trading day of May — that means institutional rotation, fund positioning, and fresh volatility.

Here’s what’s coming:

  • Jobless Claims

  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI

  • Crude Oil Inventories

⏰ Key data drops = key risk windows. Watch the clock, size accordingly.

🔍 2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Wednesday was textbook whiplash:

  • Opened with a 115-point flush

  • Buyers stepped in hard at 5455 imbalance

  • Rallied 146 points, closing at 5620 — right into March’s close and April’s open.

The key takeaway? Buyers reclaimed structure.

🔎 3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Volume is One Time Framing Up.

  • Sitting just above the previous value area.

  • A dense POC cluster around 5660–5670 is now the pressure point.

  • Break above = path into March’s upper range.

10 Day

🧱 4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Both timeframes now bullish.

  • A clean break and hold above 5672 = confirmation of momentum shift.

  • Below 5550 = retrace risk.

  • Volume is building above 5620

Daily and weekly

🧠 5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H)

  • Post-GDP flush got absorbed.

  • Aggressive buying came in hard, pushing price above the 2nd deviation.

  • Delta remains buyer-friendly. No signs of fade — yet.

2hr Delta

🗂️ 6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Closed just outside early-week balance.

  • Thin TPO prints above 5618 suggest incomplete auction — we might revisit.

  • An open above yesterday’s single print zone = continuation likely.

TPO

⏱️ 7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • We’re back inside early April range.

  • Strike prices are concentrated at 5660.

  • This is the real battlefield. Watch it like a hawk.

⚔️ 8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Line in the Sand (LIS): 5660
(High Volume Node + March Close)

🟩 Bull Plan
Entry: Above 5660
→ Targets: 5672 → 5695 → 5725

🟥 Bear Plan
Entry: Below 5660
→ Targets: 5625- 5607 → 5578

⚠️ 9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

  • New month = new positioning

  • Don’t get lured into false breakouts

  • Wait for the dust to settle around data drops

  • Structure matters more than bias

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Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59
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