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ES Outlook & Gameplan
Friday, May 2, 2025
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1️⃣ Overview & Key Data
It’s NFP Friday — buckle up.
We’re watching:
🧾 Non-Farm Payrolls
📈 Average Hourly Earnings
📉 Unemployment Rate
All drop before the open. Expect volatility spikes, wide spreads, and sharp reversals around the data. Patience > Prediction today.
2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day
Thursday gave us an 80-point balanced range — a textbook two-sided auction:
Price hovered near Wednesday’s single print
Tested highs, rejected, and settled midrange
→ Perfect structure leading into NFP.
3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile
Still One Time Framing Up (OTFU)
Holding above 5429.25 POC
Price is coiling inside the 5672 cluster zone
→ Bulls are defending structure, but momentum is thinning.

10Day
4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure
Weekly: Double distribution forming between 5562–5672
Daily: Sitting right on top of the value zone
→ The reaction to this clustered volume shelf will set next week’s tone.

Weekly and Daily
5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H)
Neutral flow Thursday — no side took full control
Buyers respected VWAP
Globex ticked higher, but flow is waiting for a trigger

2hr Delta
6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure
NY closed below value around 5650
Globex has rallied slightly into yesterday’s single print zone
→ A clean open above 5630 = bulls might push continuation.

TPO
7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices
Tightened strikes around 5670 and 5600
Price sitting near mid-pivot with no clear breakout yet
→ Watch 5630–5653 for the next directional clue.
8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears
📌 Line in the Sand (LIS): 5630
(Previous NY VAL + weekly high-volume shelf)
🟢 Bullish Plan
→ Entry: Above 5630
→ Targets: 5653 → 5674 → 5700
🔴 Bearish Plan
→ Entry: Below 5608
→ Targets: 5588 → 5555 → 5525

Are You Bearish or Bullish TodayWhat are your expectations |
9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Reminders
This is not the day to rush in.
News will swing the market — wait for the reaction, not the headline.
✅ If you’ve had a green week, don’t let FOMO eat your edge.
✅ Let the setups come to you.
✅ Respect volatility and protect your capital.
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Let’s finish the week with clarity and composure.
I’ll see you Sunday for the full Weekly Outlook.
—
Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.
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