ES Monday Market Breakdown

Rollover Week & Retail Sales Impact

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 17, 2025

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A New Week, A New Contract We're officially rolling into the June contract (ESM25). If you haven’t switched yet, make sure to do so, or your levels won’t match up. On top of that, we have retail sales data before the open, meaning early volatility could spike.

Adjust your charts and prepare for fast moves.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • Market remains in a One Time Framing Down (OTFD) structure.

  • Slight double distribution forming with POC at 5670, aligning with September’s POC.

  • Major downside target sits at 5551.

  • As long as we hold between 5762 and 5634, balance could form.

10Day VP

Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Opening inside last week’s value area—watch extremes at 5692 & 5617 for directional bias.

  • Breakout above 5700 = Accelerated buying.

  • Failure to reclaim = Further downside pressure.

Weekly Volume

Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Friday’s bullish momentum pushed through VWAP but stalled.

  • Price consolidated above 5650 buy level.

  • Today’s focus: Can price hold above weekly VWAP, or do sellers take back control?

📌 If we stay above VWAP, bulls get a shot. If we break below, look out below.

2hr Delta

NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Friday’s session showed a clean opening range extension.

  • Balance forming above 5660.

  • Opening above 5667 favors bulls—opening below shifts control back to sellers.

TPO NY

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Strike prices remain wide—expected behavior during rollover week & high-impact news days.

  • 5-day balance range in play—do we stay inside or break out?

Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

 LIS: 5660 (Friday’s OR High & Single Print Low)

📈 Bullish Plan:

  • Initiate longs above 5665 targeting 5674.50 → 5701 → 5717.

📉 Bearish Plan:

  • Start shorts below 5656 targeting 5642 → 5627 → 5616.

Trade the levels, don’t force setups.

Gameplan

Final Thoughts & Warnings

🚨 Rollover week + retail sales = expect the unexpected. ðŸš¨

Be flexible—volume shifts will dictate direction. 

If setups aren’t clear, don’t force trades. 

A special playbook on using these daily plans more efficiently drops this week: stay tuned!

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Stay sharp. See you in the trenches.

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