ES Market Overview

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 06, 2025

1️⃣ Overview

We’re standing in the calm before the storm.
FOMC hits tomorrow and today is all about positioning, traps, and misdirection.

Monday gave us a head-fake higher, then slammed into a heavy reversal. Globex now trades beneath key structure. The bulls? On their back foot.

2️⃣ Key Economic Events

  • U.S. Trade Balance – low to moderate impact

  • FOMC Tomorrow – high volatility expected post-release
    📌 Today = watch for liquidity setups and fakeouts

3️⃣ Recap of Monday

  • Strong bounce early in the session

  • Price attempted to reclaim the highs near 5706

  • Sharp fade into the close as bulls failed to defend 5672

  • Sellers firmly rejected price above Friday’s close

That 5672 rejection was your warning shot.

4️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Still OTFU, but weakening fast

  • March’s VAH now lost = critical level

  • Coiling around imbalance zones near volume ledges

  • If we slip lower, we fall into a double distribution zone and that's trap city

10day

5️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Weekly: Still OTFU, but price re-entered last week’s value area

  • Daily: Flipped back to OTFD with a new lower high at 5706.25

  • Bulls must reclaim 5672 or risk cascading lower into value voids

week and day

6️⃣ 2-Hour Delta & Order Flow

  • Balanced tape all day Monday

  • Globex is now below VWAP’s 2nd standard deviation

  • That points to lower imbalance testing unless buyers show up early

7️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Indecision day , classic pre-FOMC compression

  • Value built around Friday’s midpoint

  • We failed to break above the opening range high : red flag for continuation

  • Today’s open below 5671 = caution

8️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Four-day balance range forming

  • Globex currently below LIS at 5671

  • Support sits at 5633 (LVN), watch for wicks and responsive flow

9️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5671 – The line between composure and collapse

🟢 Bulls (Above 5671):

→ 5685
→ 5700
→ 5725

🔴 Bears (Below 5671):

→ 5655
→ 5633
→ 5590

Gameplan

🔔 Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

Let’s keep it real:

❗️This is a setup day.
We’re inside the FOMC coil, and the real move is likely waiting until Wednesday afternoon.

Today, trade with reduced size, controlled risk, and a sniper's mindset.

Catch you in tomorrow’s FOMC war room,

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

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