ES Market Outlook

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1️⃣ FOMC Day: Stay Ready

It's here.
Today is FOMC day, and alongside crude oil data and market-wide tension, we’re staring at a chart loaded with traps and fakeouts.

This is not a normal Wednesday. This is chess, not checkers.

2️⃣ Tuesday Recap

• ES tried to explore below 5633 early in the day.

• Absorption kicked in near 5610 and buyers reversed the move.

• But… sellers smacked the NY rally back below value.

• ES closed below Monday’s POC — that’s hesitation before the storm.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

• Structure is still OTFD, trying to stabilize.

• We’re clinging above 5562 (last range high).

• Critical zone remains: 5672–5674
  → Accept above = bullish case
  → Reject = fade into lower value distribution

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure

• Weekly: Still bouncing inside last week’s VA — trapped between indecision and opportunity.

• Daily: OTFD still intact, but bulls trying to stabilize

• A reclaim of 5649 sets the tone; 5672 is your line in the sand

5️⃣ 2-Hour Delta & Order Flow

• NY pushed, but was rejected at weekly VWAP

• Closed back inside a LVN = no conviction from buyers

• Textbook pre-FOMC caution — both sides waiting on Powell

6️⃣ NY TPO Context

• A perfectly balanced TPO formed

• Buyers tried to break above value but got slapped

• If we open above 5655, bulls get momentum

• A breakdown through 5607 could open a trapdoor

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Zones

• Strike prices are tight — the coil is real

• 5-day balance range from 5600 to 5725

• 🔥 Expect fakeouts. Stay out of the middle. It's a trap zone.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS = 5625
This is the last fair battleground before chaos.

🟢 Bulls want to break:

→ 5666
→ 5707
→ 5748

🔴 Bears will push toward:

→ 5584
→ 5544
→ 5503

9️⃣ Final Thoughts: It's War Time

Today is not the day to prove a point.
It’s the day to protect capital, observe flows, and pounce once structure confirms.

Most traders lose on FOMC days. Why?
They chase noise before clarity.

Don’t be most traders.

Trade smart.
Wait for the dust.
Then we strike.

— Clavis Trading