ES Market Gameplan

ES Futures Breakdown – Thursday, April 24, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 24, 2025

Watch full breakdown on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vgsuoSvx6Ag
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Good morning, legends.
Yesterday’s action was textbook deception—clean gap-up, upside euphoria, and then? Boom. Trapdoor. Today, we reset, reassess, and adapt.

1️⃣ Important News & Events

Get your coffee and your risk parameters tight—here’s what’s on deck:

  • Durable Goods Orders

  • Jobless Claims

  • New Home Sales

🕗 All hit before or near the open. Expect knee-jerk reactions. Stay disciplined—don’t trade headlines, trade structure.

2️⃣ Wednesday Recap – Round Trip Reality

  • Opened with a clean Globex gap-up.

  • Blew through all targets and ran into resistance at 5488.

  • Then reversed hard, closing near the gap high at 5380.
    A classic round trip. Bulls overextended. Sellers reclaimed control. This is where traders get chopped—unless you plan ahead.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

We’re still One Time Framing Down (OTFD), but:

  • Volume is building higher—above the previous POC.

  • A double distribution is forming.

  • Price is now hovering inside the prior VA, suggesting:
    → Balance forming, or continuation brewing.

10 Day VP

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Weekly OTFD is broken.

  • We are now officially balancing.

  • Holding above last week’s VAL = key sign of buyer strength.

  • Daily uptrend is broken, too—so don’t chase. Wait for breakout or breakdown confirmation.

Weekly and Daily

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2-Hour Chart)

  • Globex started strong → Buyers drove price early.

  • But sellers showed up right at 5500 and drove it hard back under 5470.

  • Still holding above weekly VWAP, but momentum favors a retest lower.

2hr Delta

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • B-shape profile = classic long liquidation.

  • Volume is now stacked below 5443, last week’s failed breakout POC.

  • Weak lows from yesterday mean we could see further downside—unless bulls defend early.

Ny Session TPO

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Price now sits in a low-volume node, stuck in Globex limbo.

  • Strike prices narrowed—momentum is tightening.

  • Expect explosive direction once range breaks. Be ready.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs Bears

📌 LIS: 5340 (Gap low + Friday’s VAH)
🔹 Bullish Scenario (above 5340):

  • Long from 5385

  • Targets: → 5428 → 5460

🔻 Bearish Scenario (below 5340):

  • Short below 5320

  • Targets: → 5275 → 5230

Stay reactive—not predictive.

Gameplan

⚠️ Final Thoughts & Risk Notes

This is a market on edge.
The question isn’t “where are we going?”
It’s: who’s in control when we get there?

Economic data will set the tone. Don’t guess. Let price confirm your bias.

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Jan

Clarity. Structure. Execution.
See you in tomorrow’s breakdown.


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