ES Market Gameplan

Monday, March 31st

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 31, 2025

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The Final Bell of Q1

It’s the last trading day of the quarter, and the market isn’t going out quietly.
Friday delivered a clean liquidation flush, breaking through the 5650 double bottom and dragging ES into new territory.
Now Globex opens with a 12-point gap down at 5590 and all eyes are on whether buyers will step up or let this slide continue into August’s value range.

1️⃣ Key Context: News & Noise

No scheduled economic data today.
But don’t get lazy, quarter-end flows can move markets hard.
Expect:

  • Institutional repositioning

  • Synthetic volume spikes

  • Fakeouts and algorithm traps

Today is about precision. Not emotion.

2️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Volume shifting lower—now building below the prior value area.

  • Critical support zone: 5561–5551

  • Market is actively probing new territory

  • But so far, no strong follow-through from sellers

Watch for absorption or acceleration in this lower band.

10 Day

3️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Weekly: We opened below Friday’s low—gap down into support

  • Daily: Still one-time framing down (OTFD)

  • Structure favors the bears, but if support holds, a bounce is possible

  • Eyes on 5561—if that breaks, we start targeting August’s VAL

weekly Volume, Daily Candles

4️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Big selloff on Friday after losing 5712

  • Globex showed buyer absorption around 5590

  • This could become the first defense line for bulls

5️⃣ NY TPO Session Structure

  • Friday = textbook triple distribution → strong imbalance

  • Globex now sitting below Friday’s range

  • If we open above 5612, we could see a reversion push

  • Otherwise, any attempt above that is likely to get faded

6️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Strikes widened: classic end-of-month profile

  • 5625 = upper strike zone → needs to be reclaimed for bullish follow-through

  • Still trading inside Friday’s lower distribution

This is a day where range edges matter.

7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS: 5617 → Top of the single prints & Globex resistance zone

🔹 Bullish Plan

  • Hold above 5620

  • Look for:
    → 5633 (VWAP)
    → 5651 (March 25 NY excess)
    → 5670 (Breakdown base)

🔸 Bearish Plan

  • Fail below 5612

  • Target:
    → 5561 (monthly support cluster)
    → 5542 (LVN pocket)
    → 5525 (August composite POC)

8️⃣ Final Thoughts & Tactical Notes

Today is not a normal Monday.
It’s month-end, quarter-end, and positioning day.

That means:

  • Larger order flows from funds

  • Choppy, deceptive structure early

  • “Fake strength” followed by hard rejections

Wait for confirmation.
Don’t chase rips or knife catches.
Let the market declare its intent, then strike with precision.

We’ll be back tomorrow with a clean Q2 open.

—
Jan
Marketflow Genius

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