ES Market Breakdown & Strategy

March 18, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 18, 2025

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Market Recap – CPI Rally & FOMC Positioning 

Yesterday saw a strong rally, breaking past last week’s CPI high at 5727 and forming an uptrend with higher highs and lows. But sellers hit at 5750, knocking ES back into balance. With housing & industrial data today and FOMC tomorrow, expect positioning ahead of the big event.

📌 Traders are waiting for confirmation—will bulls maintain momentum, or is this a trap?

10-Day Volume Profile – Space to Run?

  • Volume profile widening, allowing room to fill the double distribution above 5700 while staying inside September’s value range (5762-5634).

  • Buyers are holding key levels, but can they sustain momentum?

Above 5700 = continuation potential. Below 5692 = caution for bulls.

Weekly & Daily Structure – Bulls or a Trap?

  • Weekly remains OTFD (One Time Framing Down), with 5810 as the high.

  • Daily confirms OTFU (One Time Framing Up), with a low at 5651.50.

  • Bulls must hold 5692 for sustainable upside power.

Order Flow & Delta – Buyers Battling at VWAP

  • Break & retest at 5730, but sellers hit hard at 5750.

  • Buyers need to clear this zone for further upside momentum.

New York TPO & Session Breakdown

  • Buyers dominated early, accelerating through spike Base at 5691 and building value up to 5731.

  • Globex failed to hold above 5730, pulling back into balance.

  • An open above 5715 could signal bullish continuation.

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices – Fake Breakout Warning

  • Uptrend forming, but a failed breakout at 5730 has pulled price back into balance.

  • Strike prices remain wide due to OPEX, meaning volatility ahead.

📌 False breakouts are likely—patience is key.

Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5722 (HVN Ledge)

📈 Bullish above 5722 → Targets: 5735 / 5750 / 5762

📉 Bearish below 5720 → Targets: 5701 / 5680 / 5660

 Tight levels—expect aggressive reactions.

Final Thoughts – Stay Sharp for FOMC!

🚨 Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could slow price action today. ðŸš¨

Don’t fall for fake breakouts—stick to the plan. 

Size down if needed: big moves are coming post-FOMC. 

Be patient, trade smart, and watch for the key levels to hold or fail.

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Stay sharp. Big moves are coming.

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