ES Gameplan – March 24

Globex Breakout or Trap?

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 24, 2025

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Overview

It’s Monday, March 24th, the first session of the final week of March, and we’re kicking off with heat. Globex delivered a 22-point gap up overnight, clearing all recent highs. But don’t get too comfortable. We’ve seen these early fireworks fizzle out before.

🧠 Important News & Events

  • Services PMI & Manufacturing Flash – Moderate impact, but timing matters.

  • Whipsaws are common around release – stay tactical.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • Tightening VA → Compression forming.

  • POC shifted up into last period’s VAL (5750–5770).

  • Still above September POC (5751) & Monthly POC (5714) = bullish bias.

  • Filling gap above 5700 from early March.

10Day VP

Weekly Volume Profile

  • Triple Distribution in play.

  • VAH at 5773, aligning with last week’s range high.

  • If ES breaks 5783 VAL, expect further upside pressure.

Daily Candle Structure

  • Strength is building, but NY open must confirm.

  • Globex gap has not been tested – keep it in view.

  • Reclaim of weekly VAH = bullish continuation potential.

Weekly + Daily

Order Flow & Delta (2H)

  • Solid delta prints during Globex.

  • Sellers active at 5780 – could become key defense.

  • Break of prior range highs → now it’s NY’s move.

NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Friday closed with triple distribution + range extension.

  • Globex followed through → but TPO logic says NY session holds the power.

NY TPO

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Globex targets the March 9 gap.

  • Narrow strike range: High 5825 / Low 5750.

  • Gap below 5740 = magnet if NY rejects breakout.

Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS: 5770 (CPI High Break + HVN Ledge)

🔵 Bulls

  • Longs from 5775

  • Targets: 5795 → 5810 → 5825

🔴 Bears

  • Shorts below 5765

  • Targets: 5750 → 5740 → 5725

GamePlan

🚨 Final Thoughts & Warnings

  • Globex breakouts don’t always hold into RTH.

  • Wait for confirmation → don’t chase moves.

  • Like we say here: “Nice songs don’t last long.”

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