ES Gameplan

Friday 04.04.2025 | "Overruled"

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 04, 2025

📺 Watch the Full Breakdown on YouTube (with all the dirty charts):
https://youtu.be/DwSqjXOkjLQ?si=quz2tojwV02vdxpB

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
— Mike Tyson

Well, we just ate a 100-point jab overnight. Welcome to Friday.

🧨 Market Overview – Chaos into the Close

This isn’t just a Friday—it’s NFP, employment data, earnings reports, and a Powell speech all wrapped into one. Add in a Thursday breakdown that absolutely obliterated support... and you've got the perfect storm.

This is not the day to trade on vibes.

🔎 10-Day Volume Profile – Ripped Apart

  • Volume profile is stretched like a crash test dummy.

  • We've lost the VA Low at 5628, and we’re now deep below both the August and May ranges.

  • Current balance is building at 5400—also the major gamma put wall.

  • Next macro support: 5303 (August low). That’s your battleground if 5400 goes.

10 day

📉 Weekly & Daily Structure – Bear King Reigns

  • Weekly VA Low dropped another 58 points.

  • OTFD (One Time Framing Down) still intact—Thursday's high: 5564.75.

  • No bounce, no defense, just a clean flush below 5527.

  • Bulls need a miracle to get back in control today.

📊 2HR Delta & Order Flow – Clean Kill

  • Sellers ran it from the open.

  • Bulls made a pathetic attempt at 5500—but couldn’t even hold a handshake.

  • Session closed 163 points lower than Wednesday. That’s not selling. That’s capitulation.

🗂️ NY TPO Session – Brutal Structure

  • Triple distribution with multiple untested lows.

  • Buyers never even sniffed Monday’s opening range.

  • Two untouched single print zones now sit above as resistance.

  • Structure is screaming: “Continuation.”

🕒 1-Hour & Strike Prices – Welcome to Gamma Hell

  • Trend still pointing south. Hard.

  • Overnight strikes slid 100 points down.

  • 5440 = short-term resistance (volume gap).

  • 5400 = psychological magnet + gamma sinkhole + LIS.

🎯 Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Line In The Sand: 5400

🐂 Bulls Plan:

  • Entry: 5405

  • Targets: 5426 → 5444 → 5468

  • But don’t marry the bounce—this is counter-trend hunting.

🐻 Bears Plan:

  • Entry: 5396

  • Targets: 5380 → 5365 → 5340

  • Ride momentum. Look left, and you’ll find plenty of unfinished business.

⚠️ Final Thoughts & Tactical Reminders

This isn’t just a market pullback.
It’s a full regime change.
Add Powell’s speech and NFP to the mix? You get algorithmic murder on both sides of the tape.

🧠 Trade plan, not predictions.
✂️ Cut size, not corners.
💡 Structure wins—emotions don’t.

🧭 Don’t Miss the Weekly Outlook (Drops Sunday)

👉 New levels
👉 Fresh structure zones
👉 Tactical setups for Q2

Want the exact strategy I use to prep these plans and execute trades with military precision?

📥 Grab the Sentinel Playbook (Free)
https://app.clavisconnect.com/marketflowgenius-7719
If you’re serious about leveling up, this is your blueprint.

📫 One last thing – If this landed in your “Promotions” or “Updates” tab…
Drag it into your Primary inbox so you don’t miss next week’s plan.

We don’t do fluff.
We do clarity, edge, and execution.

See you Sunday.

—
Clavis Trading | MarketFlow Genius
Your Tactical Edge in a Brutal Market.


Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59
Bulenox Propfirm (trusted): https://bulenox.com/member/aff/go/renkoflow