ES Gameplan

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 14, 2025

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1️⃣ Market Overview

Tuesday’s CPI rally gave bulls everything they wanted:

  • A full breakout continuation

  • No real pullbacks

  • And a trap for late sellers

Yesterdays VOMA levels

NOTE: VOMA is a real-time volume-orderflow tool that maps key inflection points based on institutional positioning and dealer behavior. It helps traders anticipate volatility shifts and pinpoint high-probability reaction zones with precision. Join discord for early access

Now, with crude oil inventory data coming in today, we’ll see if buyers can hold the high ground or if this push runs out of steam.

2️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

📈 One Time Framing Up remains intact

  • VAH jumped 112 points—a huge shift in momentum

  • Price reclaimed March’s VAL at 5857.25

  • 📌 2025 losses officially erased

🔍 POC still sits inside the prior range, if it shifts upward, expect stronger acceptance of higher prices.

10 Day

3️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure

Both weekly and daily are OTFU.
We’re now trading:
→ Above March’s VAH: 5895.25
→ Sitting on top of an LVN shelf around 5899

📌 That LVN is our springboard or trapdoor. Yesterday printed a P-profile, so confirmation is still needed.

week and day

4️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H)

  • Aggressive buying kicked in at 5845

  • No continuation near 5930 suggests buyer hesitation or passive selling

  • Still holding above weekly VWAP = positive context

2 hr delta

5️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • P-shaped session confirms short-covering, not fresh initiative buying

  • Closed at the top = buyers still in control

  • But… no follow-through above 5930 = yellow flag, no diving!

6️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

ES is camped inside the March 5th seller zone
→ 5930 has been the ceiling
→ If we break through it, 6000 is on the menu
→ Fail here, and expect a fade back into 5850s

7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5904 
🟢 Bull Targets:
→ 5930
→ 5956
→ 5983

🔴 Bear Targets:
→ 5878
→ 5852
→ 5825

Are You Bearish or Bullish Today

What are your expectations

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8️⃣ Final Thoughts

Crude oil data could be the trigger today.
🚨 We’re holding near the highs, but still inside a trap zone until we break and hold above 5930 with conviction.

✅ Play structure.
✅ Trade the extremes.
✅ Let the reaction lead, don’t predict it.

📩 This newsletter is built daily from real volume structure, not guesswork.
If this is helping your prep, consider forwarding it to one trader who could use tighter structure.


Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Discord channel: https://whop.com/clavis-2/ 

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59 

Bulenox Propfirm (trusted): https://bulenox.com/member/aff/go/renkoflow