ES Gameplan

Friday, May 16, 2025 | OPEX Showdown

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 16, 2025

1️⃣ Important News & Events

No major earnings today but don’t let your guard down.
We’ve got:

  • 🏗️ Housing Starts

  • 📑 Building Permits

  • 🔥 And OPEX (Options Expiration)

Expect gamma-fueled moves, fast rotations, and potentially massive fakeouts.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Thursday was a liquidity hunter’s dream.

  • Globex ran price into 5930s

  • NY opened, chopped, then flushed the highs

  • Buyers stepped back in and ripped it into the close

🧱 Double Distribution Day printed, a classic sign of continuation…

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Still OTFU and climbing:

  • Price now clearly accepted above 5900

  • We’ve reclaimed and built value above March’s VAH

  • ⚠️ Buyers must defend this zone or risk slippage back into the old range

10 Day

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure

  • 🟢 Daily: Strong continuation with a possible P profile

  • 🟢 Weekly: POC shifting above 5900, adding more fuel to the bullish thesis
    If we hold above 5920 today, we could be looking at a March recapture move toward 6,000.

weekly and day

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H View)

  • Sellers pressed VWAP overnight

  • Buyers flipped the tape and reclaimed control

  • The VWAP retest held strong = 📈 positive sentiment

6️⃣ NY TPO Structure

  • Clean double distribution

  • Value building above Monday’s high

  • If bulls hold the top of yesterday’s structure, we’re looking at strong continuation setups

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Uptrend remains clean

  • 2-day range acting as a launchpad

  • Strike price clusters widening = classic OPEX behavior
    🎯 Expect fake breaks and gamma-driven reversals

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Line in the Sand: 5949
This is the range edge that decides everything today.

🟢 Bulls Above 5949:
→ 5973 → 5996 → 6020
➡️ Momentum builds on reclaim & hold.

🔴 Bears Below 5949:
→ 5925 → 5901 → 5877
➡️ Failure here invites Friday fade traps.

Gameplan

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

It’s OPEX Friday.
That means:
🌀 Random swings
🌀 Option players shifting exposure
🌀 Gamma magnets in play

🎯 If you’re green on the week , protect it.
🎯 If you’re not , size down and don’t force revenge trades.

📬 Missed the daily prep this week? Catch up + never miss another setup:
→ Click here to subscribe to Clavis Free Daily Gameplan

Trade smart. Keep your capital alive. And I’ll see you Sunday for the Weekly Outlook.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Discord channel: https://whop.com/clavis-2/ 

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59 

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