ES Gameplan

March 19 – FOMC Day

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 19, 2025

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FOMC days are a battlefield. Markets will whip around violently, breaking levels, trapping traders, and causing fake moves in both directions. If you’re not 100% prepared, today is a good day to step aside or size down. .

Important News & Events

  • FOMC Statement & Rate Decision – Expect extreme volatility!

  • Crude Oil Inventories – Could influence energy markets.

  • Reminder: Powell’s press conference often shifts the market more than the rate decision itself.

Recap of Previous Day

  • Monday’s breakout failed above 5727 → ES dropped back into last week’s range.

  • Took out the Daily OTFU low by just 3 ticks before closing 40 points lower.

  • No buyer support at 5692, leading to more downside into the close.

  • Big question: Was this just a stop run before Powell resets the board, or will sellers continue lower?

10-Day Volume Profile

  • VA is coiling up, meaning price is compressing for a breakout.

  • Still tracking September’s value area, rejecting 5721.

  • The gap above 5700 has been mostly filled.

10Day VP

Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Weekly: ES is back inside last week’s value, most volume sitting below 5692.

  • Daily: Yesterday rejected weekly 50% range extension → back inside value.

  • Major levels to watch:

    • Above 5692 = possible bullish shift.

    • Below 5670 = sellers still in control.

Weekly volume, daily candles

Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Friday’s single prints filled at 5660.

  • Heavy selling below weekly VWAP, meaning sellers are still active.

  • Yesterday’s close saw aggressive selling at 5670, but no strong buyer reaction yet.

2Hr Delta

NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Yesterday’s open rejected Monday’s breakout → price dropped straight to POC.

  • Found balance below Friday’s VAL, forming a "B-shaped" profile → signals indecision.

  • If we open above 5682, buyers may take control. Below 5670, sellers keep momentum.

  •  Watch for initial fakeouts before committing to a direction.

TPO

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Price is building a range between 5650 and 5760.

  • Our main focus today will be these extremes.

  • Strike prices remain wide, which is normal before FOMC.

Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

LIS: 5690 (Friday’s NY VAH + Yesterday’s VAL + Composite Ledge)

 Bullish above 5690 → Longs at 5694, targeting 5707, 5730, 5752.

 Bearish below 5686 → Shorts target 5670, 5658, 5640.

 This is not a day to gamble—trade the plan, or step aside.

Gameplan

Final Thoughts & Warnings

🚨 FOMC days are NOT for the weak. 🚨

Expect fakeouts, whipsaws, and massive volatility. 

If you aren’t confident, don’t trade. 

Powell’s impact will be broken down in the next update, Stay Tuned

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Stay sharp. Stay disciplined. See you tomorrow.

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