Es Futures Weekly Outlook

Week 4: June 23–27, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
June 22, 2025

Important Geopolitical Update

Late Sunday, the U.S. launched strikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), marking a serious escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Markets reacted immediately:

  • Crude oil surged on fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz

  • Safe-haven flows spiked: gold, Treasuries, and USD gained traction

  • Equity futures pulled back, signaling broad risk aversion

  • Defense sector rotated higher across the board

Market Consequences:

  • Inflation tailwind risk → rising energy prices may filter into CPI/PCE

  • Risk-off bias → short-term pressure on indices until Iran’s response is clear

  • Defense sector = strongest positive alpha in current macro

📈 Strategy Summary:

Sector

Outlook

Trade Idea

U.S. Defense

Positive short-term

Long ETFs or high-liquidity names

Aerospace

Neutral to positive

Watch earnings + contract news

Global Defense

Regional opportunity

Consider diversified ETF exposure

1️⃣ Recap of Previous Week

Last week showed early signs of a potential higher-timeframe shift.
Despite testing lower, ES couldn't take out 6073.50 (lower high) nor 5969 (lower low) during Friday’s OPEX session. We remain in balance, but downside pressure is rising.

2️⃣ Monthly Volume Profile

OTFU remains intact , but the structure is tight.

  • June starts the final week with a 207-point total range, the narrowest of 2025

  • VA only spans ~70 points, rejecting both upside and downside breakouts

  • Total volume: just 16 million → signals low participation, algos rotating, and indecision
    ⚠️ This kind of squeeze often precedes a major expansion event.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Still OTFU but value is trapped inside prior value

  • We now watch three scenarios:

    1. Remain inside VA → extended coiling

    2. Break VAH → expansion toward 6126–6149

    3. Breakdown toward 5924.25 (Previous VAL) and 5919 (prior range low)
      This week’s geopolitical event may be the catalyst to trigger one of them.

4️⃣ Weekly Volume Profile

  • Weekly volume is building below last week’s VA, shifting us toward a potential trend reversal

  • Commitment of Traders shows speculators reducing exposure, adding to the lower-volume environment

  • Bulls must reclaim and hold 6073 with conviction

  • Bears will want to test 5985–5950 zone, where May’s VA housed key demand.

5️⃣ Daily Candles Structure

  • Friday’s close fell below both last week’s VAL and weekly structure

  • Bullish momentum is fading

  • The Middle East news will dominate the tone of this week’s open, whether price accepts or rejects lower levels will decide direction.

6️⃣ 4-Hour Structure

  • Weakness is surfacing after the post-May 23 uptrend.

  • Monthly VWAP has flattened after multiple tests , a classic precursor to structural change.

  • A confirmed breakdown from here would signal HTF trend rotation into potential downtrend territory.

7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS (Line In the Sand): 5971 — POC of the previous long-term balance zone.

🔼 Bullish Path:

  • Hold above 5971

  • Overcome monthly VWAP at 6046

  • Final target for continuation = 6109 (prior resistance)

  • Geopolitical risk easing would support this path

🔽 Bearish Path:

  • Reject 5971 → aggressive fade opportunities

  • Breakdown through LVN → 5860, aligning with Yearly VWAP

  • Escalation risk or macro shock could accelerate this path rapidly

🔟 Final Thoughts

This is a macro-meets-micro week.
OPEX unwind, global conflict, and rotation flows are all converging.
Stay nimble. Stick to the LIS. Avoid overtrading news chop. Wait for volume to confirm.

A more detailed GamePlan for Daytrading will be delivered Tomorrow before RTH Open.

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  • Options market structure

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59