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🧭 Welcome back, traders
Last week was all about balance. But we know what happens when the market coils this tight, it’s loading the next big move.
Let’s break it down from top to bottom.
1️⃣ Recap of Previous Week
ES Futures sat in tight rotation, pinned between the March close and April open.
Thursday gave us a tease and broke above value, but no follow-through.
Buyers AND sellers kept risk tight.
Which means? Pressure is building. The next move could be explosive.
2️⃣ Monthly Volume Profile
May Range: Tight :145 points
Still trading above April’s VAH
But we’re bumping up against the edge.
Bulls need a clean break of 5,770 to trigger a real expansion.
📌 Until then? Still just balance inside the broader trend.
3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile
OTFU (One Time Framing Up) still intact
Heavy clustering around March’s closing value
Price is testing both sides of value, signaling indecision
This is classic pre-breakout compression.
4️⃣ Weekly Volume Profile
Double distribution in play
Lower distribution = last week’s value
If we retest and hold that VAH → Support confirmed
If we lose it → Bears might press toward the 5,600s
5️⃣ Daily Candle Structure
7-day balance is locked in around April’s POC: 5,674
This high-volume node = battlefield
Tricky zone so expect failed breakouts and traps at both extremes
📌 Watch 5,770 and 5,600 for directional cues
6️⃣ 4-Hour Structure
Still inside the A-to-B macro range: 4,832 → 5,773
Currently above the key LVN of that range
Structure favors bulls unless we get a clean break below 5,600
7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears
📌 Line in the Sand (LIS): 5,670
(That’s monthly VWAP + major LVN shelf)
🟢 Bullish Breakout:
Target: 6,010.50 ← (yes, that’s where 5K contracts were dumped last time)
🔴 Bearish Rejection:
Target: 5,340: Potential gap fill back into April 22’s low-volume zone
💡 Final Thoughts
This is the calm before the storm.
We’re rangebound, but we’re coiling.
✅ Stick to structure
✅ Trade the extremes
✅ Stay out of the chop
The next breakout is loading.
See you Monday at the open.
What Is your Weekly Bias |
Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.
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