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ES Futures Outlook

ES Futures Outlook

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Jan Verhelst
June 24, 2025

Volatility unlocks direction. Follow momentum, but respect balance.

1️⃣ Important News & Events

Today, all eyes are on:

Fed Chair Powell speaking
Consumer Confidence data

With markets sensitive to macro tone after yesterday’s push, Powell’s comments could tilt directionality sharply especially around inflation or rate expectations.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

📈 Price History Summary (ESU25)

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-06-23	6023.25	6069.00	5973.50	6046.75	+0.39%	1,063,926
2025-06-24	6046.75	6144.75	6046.75	6125.75	+1.30%	934,404

📌 Key Takeaways:

Monday started with a gap lower and immediately absorbed.
Buyers stepped in during RTH, driving price cleanly from LIS → +1σ → upper VOMA zones.
Overnight session extended this momentum with solid Globex follow-through.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

ES prints a strong OTFU shift blasting out of prior value.

Now testing March VAH @ 6149
A successful reclaim here could initiate a return-to-breakout move toward ATHs.
Eyes on whether this is continuation or exhaustion.

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

In just two days, the weekly profile took out both last week’s high and low → high volatility + aggressive positioning.

Globex formed a triple distribution, indicating institutional positioning across three zones.
Structural bullishness is confirmed above mid-distribution.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

Sellers tested above weekly VWAP, but couldn’t hold.
On the flush, a visible wall of buyers absorbed and drove price back through VWAP → +2σ.
The delta footprint shows strong buy programs dominating once price reclaims LIS.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Monday created an elongated, balanced profile
Clean excess highs/lows and a 50-point IB
Closing at the top = continuation bias today, unless Powell rattles the balance

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Strike prices are widely spread, signaling uncertainty
But ES holds above weekly VWAP, keeping the bull thesis in play
Failure to reclaim upper VOMA zone (6137.50/6167) may trigger mean reversion.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Gameplan Structure (Pre-Market for June 24, 2025)

🎯 LIS: 6101.50
Use this as your reactive control point—execute only with confluence (DOM, Delta, Footprint).

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Hold support at LIS →
- +1σ = 6120.77
- +3σ = 6159.31
Momentum above 6159 opens path to:
- Call Wall @ 6200
- MAX ALPHA = 6225.00

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Rejection in 6120–6140 zone → fade back to LIS
Break below –1σ (6082.23) → opens:
- –2σ = 6062.96
- –3σ = 6043.69

⚔️ Strategic Notes
✅ MAX ALPHA = 6225.00
→ Use this zone as a high-probability fade/reversal area if price extends rapidly into low-volume terrain.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

We’re in a power trend, but also in a landmine environment.
Powell could amplify or kill the move. Don’t play hero.
Wait for retests, use LIS and VWAP as execution pivots, and follow momentum only when confirmed.