ES Futures Outlook

Tuesday, July 9, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
July 08, 2025

Sponsored by

1️⃣ Important News & Events

No major economic reports today. Expect price action to remain reactive to structure and dealer flows.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Price History (ESU25)

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

% Change

Volume

2025-07-07

6307.75

6315.00

6246.25

6276.00

–0.76%

1,376,613

2025-07-08

6262.50

6284.25

6254.50

6281.00

+0.08%

56,488

📌 Key Takeaways:
Sellers cracked Friday’s low-volume range and dragged price back into Wednesday’s POC zone (6248).
Attempt to reclaim Thursday’s open rejection POC (6308) failed immediately.
The result? A reversion and balance rebuild near prior value. Structural weakness confirmed.

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3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • OTFU bias softens as volume starts forming lower again

  • Partial fill of the LVN below

  • Opening below 6265 = active sellers gaining ground

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Week: Still OTFU

  • Day: OTFD, showing distribution pressure

  • Risk: Price may fall back fully into last week’s value (6265–6235)

  • Bias: On edge reclaim = neutral, breakdown = confirmation of downside pressure

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Weekly VWAP tested multiple times

  • Heavy RTH selling below VWAP

  • Seller control increasing: watch if this extends into today’s session

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Thursday’s buying tail now being fully trapped

  • Market traded back into Wednesday’s breakout range

  • Poor lows remain exposed → weak structure = likely retest

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Uptrend has lost respect → choppy, non-directional

  • Strike prices are wide, suggesting volatility expansion

  • Puts stacked near 6250–6275, heavy calls still visible at 6300

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🎯 LIS: 6262.25
(Use for reactive setups and confirmation bias)

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

  • Hold LIS → target +1σ (6280.00), then +3σ (6315.75)

  • Break and hold above 6300 → opens GEX stretch into 6350–6375

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

  • Rejection at 6280–6300 → fade back to LIS

  • Break LIS → opens flush toward

    • –1σ: 6244.25

    • –2σ: 6226.38

    • –3σ: 6208.50

📌 Implied Volatility: Slightly elevated , market expects range expansion, not direction.

⚔️ Strategic Notes

✅ Max Alpha = 6375.00 — Tagged as late-session fade zone if euphoric squeeze plays out.
Stay nimble. Two-sided risk dominates until either Thursday’s POC is reclaimed or sellers break 6225.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59