ES futures Outlook

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
July 09, 2025

1️⃣ Important News & Events

πŸ“Œ Crude Oil Inventory Data – volatility spike possible if energy markets trigger correlation moves
πŸ“Œ FOMC Minutes Release – watch closely for taper, rate, or liquidity tone shifts

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Price History (ESU25)

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

% Change

Volume

2025-07-08

6262.50

6289.00

6254.50

6272.00

–0.06%

1,073,914

2025-07-09

6272.00

6276.75

6260.00

6273.25

+0.02%

44,152

πŸ“Œ Key Takeaways:
Another low-volume, low-conviction session with price pinned near 6275 sitting right on top of the Put Wall.
Despite brief wicks lower, the market refused to break structure, signaling dealer pinning or balance behavior.

Compression mode engaged. Expansion inevitable.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • OTFU value still clustered near 6275, tightening range

  • Price coiling just above LVNs , volume tapering

  • Expect momentum ignition when one side gets overrun

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Weekly: Still OTFU

  • Daily: OTFD and balanced , inside day structure in play

  • Value building near weekly VA low , all eyes on range breaks

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Tuesday was a textbook balanced 2-way auction around weekly VWAP

  • Delta flows were neutral-to-slightly passive on both ends

  • This equilibrium could be the launchpad for aggressive flow.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Tuesday traded inside Monday’s range

  • Both Monday’s ORL and VAL were tested with no excess in either direction

  • Structure remains fragile but one-sided push will break this calm

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • ES stuck between monthly and weekly VWAPs

  • No directional trend = reactive regime

  • Strikes showing range-bound bias:

    • Calls stacked at 6300

    • Puts heavy from 6250 down to 6225

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🎯 LIS: 6273.25
(Use this level for intraday directional bias)

πŸ”Ό Bullish Scenarios

  • Hold above LIS (6273.25) β†’ trigger +1Οƒ (6290.22), then extend to +3Οƒ (6323.92)

  • Strong momentum > 6295–6300 zone β†’ possible dealer unwind into
    GEX magnet @ 6350–6375

πŸ”½ Bearish Scenarios

  • Rejection at LIS or VWAP fade β†’ drop to –1Οƒ (6256.53)

  • Break of Put Wall β†’ opens path to –2Οƒ (6239.68), then –3Οƒ (6222.83)

πŸ“Œ IV remains elevated 

market is primed, not relaxed. One spark triggers follow-through.

βš”οΈ Strategic Notes

βœ… Max Alpha = 6375.00
Marked as high-probability fade/reversal zone on emotional upside breaks.

βœ… Break below 6250 signals a dealer unwind and potential trend day

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πŸ”Ή Structural Context β†’ LIS, VWAP, imbalance zones

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59