ES futures Outlook

Weekly Outlook (July 14–18, 2025)

Author

Jan Verhelst
July 13, 2025

Welcome to your weekly pulse check on the ES futures market.

This week we’re sitting right on the edge of a potential breakout — or a deeper mean reversion. Price is grinding at extremes, volume is compressing, and structure is signaling caution.

Let’s break it down.

1️⃣ Recap of Previous Week

Last week was a textbook slow grind to new highs.

We stayed glued to the monthly VWAP and weekly balance zone, until Thursday gave us the breakout: a clean ATH sweep by just 2.25 points — classic low-liquidity extension behavior.

Structure remained controlled, with no violent reversals. But don’t get it twisted , this was dealer flow-driven, not momentum chasing.

2️⃣ Monthly Volume Profile

We're looking at a tight, compressed volume profile this month.

The Value Area is just 44 points wide, which is extremely narrow for ES. Most of the volume is stacked toward the top end, suggesting late buyers, hedging activity, or trapped inventory.

This setup makes it very easy for volatility to expand violently , in either direction.

3️⃣ 10-Day Composite Volume Profile

We’re currently building above the last POC (around 6251), with multiple sessions finding support near 6310.

This creates a key price shelf for intraday trades — any acceptance above this zone keeps bulls in control. Rejection from here, though, would drag us straight into last week’s value.

📍 Key Zone: 6308–6310

4️⃣ Weekly Volume Profile & Commitment of Traders

Commercials are reducing exposure while large speculators are stepping in.

You could feel it , late last week had that signature slow squeeze feel: liquidity dried up, but buyers kept pressing.

Volume is now stacking above last week’s VA, which tells us: dealers are preparing for a shift. Direction is still unclear but fuel is loaded.

Blue line= Large speculators, red= commercial= Green= retail

5️⃣ Daily Candle Structure

We’ve now balanced for 7 days above last week’s VAH.

If we open below 6272, that’s our first warning: imbalance is fading.

But if we open above 6310, the buyers aren’t done and 6400 is wide open.

6️⃣ 4H Chart Context

Uptrend intact but momentum is stalling between the 1st and 2nd yearly standard deviations.

This isn’t weakness yet… but it is caution.

🎯 Watch Monthly VWAP behavior closely next week.
It will likely serve as a magnet, or a directional pivot.

7️⃣ Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS (Line in Sand): 6270

🟩 Bulls Want:

  • Hold above 6310

  • Push into 6400 (2nd Dev + Yearly VWAP convergence)

🟥 Bears Need:

  • Reclaim and hold 6175

  • This breaks structure and fills in the LVN/single print zone

📉 Bonus: Daily VOMA Game Plan Drops Tomorrow

Want the precise intraday levels we’re watching?

✅ VOMA deviation zones
✅ Gamma clusters
✅ Call/Put walls
✅ Trade ideas mapped to orderflow in real time

📨 These drop every morning before the RTH open — via the newsletter and live inside Discord.

🧠 What is VOMA?

VOMA (Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer) is our custom-built system that tracks institutional positioning and maps the market with precision.

It prints the daily gameplan using:

  • Implied move deviation zones

  • Gamma exposure levels (Max GEX, Gamma2–5)

  • Call/Put walls (dealer hedging pressure)

  • Recommended stops based on volatility

Paired with live orderflow, VOMA tells us where price is likely to stall, reverse, or accelerate.

And it’s fully integrated with our daily prep inside the Discord.

🎯 Ready to Trade With Us?

Join the Clavis Discord — now partially free.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59