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ES Futures outlook

ES Futures outlook

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Jan Verhelst
July 15, 2025

1️⃣ Important News & Events

🔥 CPI Drops Today + Major Bank Earnings Incoming

This is the most critical session of the week.

CPI → Can shift Fed rate expectations instantly
Big Banks Reporting → Massive institutional flows kick off
Combine both, and you’ve got a perfect volatility storm

⚠️ Stay sharp. Volatility = Opportunity, but also deception.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day – Monday, July 14

Market opened with a gap down, tested below Monthly VWAP
Buyers stepped in, and drove price back above value
Today’s early OVN session pushed to a new ETH ATH (6335.75)

📌 Key Takeaway:
Buyers defended where they had to. Structure is now back at the top, just under Max Alpha.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Still OTFU — price now traversing prior value
ETH session broke to a fresh ATH, confirming buyer control
Value forming higher = Accumulation at the highs
→ Critical test: can we hold this new high ground?

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Another 1-tick ATH print = market probing the upside
Daily candles are still balanced, but volume building at the top
Watch for excess or rejection signs today — CPI could trigger both

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

Slow upward grind, using Weekly VWAP as dynamic support
ETH session tagged 3rd standard deviation overnight
→ Strong initiative buying, but may be fragile into CPI
→ We want to see delta and footprint confirm any continuation

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Monday tested Friday’s single prints
Current structure building balance near Friday’s Opening Range and Thursday’s VA
→ This is a classic coiling scenario
→ CPI will decide whether this balance becomes a launchpad or breakdown

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Price hovering inside 2nd σ zone around Monthly VWAP
Strike prices are narrower today, clustering tight:
- 6275
- 6300
- 6325
- 6350
- 6375

→ High Call Interest building around 6325–6375
→ IV is neutral today at ~17.68%, which could spike post-CPI

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🎯 LIS: 6310.00
→ Play reactions here — break and hold confirms trend

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Hold above LIS → push to +1σ 6326.00, then +3σ 6358.74
CPI beat → continuation squeeze → test Call Wall @ 6375.00
Max Alpha = 6400.00 → prepare reversal setup at this zone

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Fail at 6333.75–6340.00 → fade back toward +1σ
Break below –1σ (6293.25) → opens flush path to –2σ (6278.00) then –3σ (6263.00)
→ Big trap risk here if CPI surprise triggers a fake breakout

⚔️ Strategic Notes

✅ Max Alpha = 6400.00
→ Treat this zone as high-probability fade or reactive reversal target
✅ Be patient into CPI — don’t chase the first move
✅ Focus on confirmation over prediction