ES Futures Outlook

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
July 10, 2025

1️⃣ Important News & Events

πŸ“Œ Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
β†’ High-impact data with potential to shake short-term direction if claims spike or dip drastically.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Price History (ESU25)

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

% Change

Volume

2025-07-09

6272.00

6315.25

6260.00

6307.25

+0.56%

1,144,723

2025-07-10

6306.00

6312.25

6287.50

6298.75

–0.13%

63,568

πŸ“Œ Key Takeaways:

  • Strong upside momentum on the 9th was not confirmed with follow-through.

  • Price tested and failed to hold above 6315.25, showing no initiative buying.

  • Thursday’s close below the Daily POC(6308.25) with low volume signals weak conviction.
    β†’ Expect reversion unless buyers aggressively reclaim 6315

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Profile remains OTFU, but currently squeezed between last periods POC (6251) and VAH (6308)

  • Market is coiling so watch for breakout or rejection at volume edges

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Weekly: OTFU β€” initiative buyers still in control structurally

  • Daily: 5-Day Balance β€” compression suggests an imminent expansion

  • Globex is poking into yesterday’s DD LVN β†’ watch for signs of absorption or continuation
    β†’ Value is creeping upward in RTH while Globex retraces = battle for initiative.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Entire week remains a clean 2-way auction

  • VWAP is flat, confirming balance

  • Momentum will favor the side that breaks out of this neutral posture with volume commitment

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Thursday printed a Double Distribution (DD) Normal Variation day

  • Closed above the Opening VA, signaling subtle bullish tilt

  • However, the climb in RTH value vs Globex weakness suggests tension
    β†’ Who folds first: weak-handed buyers or passive sellers?

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Early signs of a possible uptrend emerging this week

  • Wait for clean breakout confirmation, as range is still holding

  • Options map shows high activity:

    • Calls clustered at 6325–6400

    • IV still elevated, suggesting tension or a potential squeeze ahead

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🎯 LIS: 6310.00
(Key reactive level to frame intraday decisions)

πŸ”Ό Bullish Scenarios

  • Support at LIS β†’ targets +1Οƒ (6326.00), then momentum extension to +3Οƒ (6358.74)

  • Break and hold > 6325 opens floodgate toward Call Wall @ 6375.00

  • Final target: Max Alpha = 6400.00 (ideal late-session fade/reversal)

πŸ”½ Bearish Scenarios

  • Rejection at 6310.00 β†’ fade toward +1Οƒ zone 6293.25

  • Break below –1Οƒ (6293.25) β†’ exposes 6276.88, then –3Οƒ (6260.51)
    β†’ Put walls thin until 6250, creating fast move potential on failed support

βš”οΈ Strategic Notes

βœ… Max Alpha = 6400.00
High-probability reversal/fade zone if market overextends.
βœ… Compression breeds chaos β€” today's session has explosive potential if jobless data provides the trigger.

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  • πŸ”Έ Market Structure & LIS β†’ Key pivots for bias and defense

  • πŸ”Έ Options Positioning β†’ GEX, open interest walls, IV skew

  • πŸ”Έ Execution Models β†’ Fade, continuation, trap-reversal strategies

VOMA is a framework that shows where real power shifts and when to strike.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59