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ES Futures Outlook

ES Futures Outlook

Friday, June 20, 2025

Jan Verhelst
June 20, 2025

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1️⃣ Important News & Events

Today marks Quarterly Options Expiration (OPEX) — expect increased volatility, gamma-driven moves, and traps near strikes and VWAP. Stand by for fakeouts.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Price History Summary (ESU25)

Date | Open | High | Low | Close | % Change | Volume 2025-06-19 | 6052.75| 6063.75| 5969.00 | 5980.25 | –1.19% |1,303,187 2025-06-20 | 5976.00| 6037.75| 5950.25 | 6032.25 | +0.87% | 962,226

📌 Key Takeaways:
Thursday’s half-session triggered a liquidity vacuum, breaking below all major volume areas and tagging June 2 VAH.
Overnight (Globex) pushed back up into Wednesday’s range, signaling a fight for re-acceptance.

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3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Still OTFU, but value area is tight, rotating inside previous VA.
Sellers tested the lower edge, but price now hovering back near Value Area Low.

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Thursday’s drop cracked the OTFU, pulling structure back to balance.
Daily chart formed an OTFD, but bulls must reclaim weekly VAH @ 6033.50 to neutralize the structure. Until then, trend is capped.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

RTH on Thursday tagged –3σ on Weekly VWAP, showing hard selling pressure sub-6000.
Globex retraced those losses, currently finding buyers at –1σ (6030).
Watch for delta shifts above 6033 and absorption at VWAP bands.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Thursday’s TPO formed a compressed range due to the half-day session.
Ignore the RTH gap — treat it as a continuation of a multi-day balance.
Wednesday’s poor highs remain untouched. If we open inside Thursday’s VA, we might retrace toward value high.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Monthly and weekly VWAP align near 6050, making it a key reference level.
Yesterday retested the ESM25 settlement @ 5979.25, which held.
Strikes are narrowing near Thursday’s value: below 6030 = premium chop zone.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

Gameplan Structure (Pre-Market for June 20)
🎯 LIS: 6036.25
(Play reactive off this level)

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Support at LIS → target +1σ (6057.15), then +3σ (6098.96)
Continuation squeeze → test Call Wall @ 6050 / MAX ALPHA ~6175

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Failure at 6038–6050 zone → fade toward 6015–5994 (–1σ to –2σ)
Below –2σ (5994.44) opens path to 5973.54 (–3σ) and 5950 (Put Wall)

⚔️ Strategic Notes
✅ Max Alpha = 6175 → Use for high-probability fade or reactive reversal
🚫 Avoid trades at LIS unless clear delta/DOM confirmation

VOMA Levels

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

OPEX Fridays are notoriously manipulative — you don’t need to catch every move.
Patience is power. Focus on clean reclaims and breaks, not noise.

🔍 What Is VOMA?

VOMA (Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer) is our precision execution framework.
It blends options data, volume profile, delta footprint, VWAP interaction, and institutional flow to give you high-probability trade zones every day.

We use it to track key inflection points, decode smart money activity, and eliminate noise.