ES Futures Market Summary

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 20, 2025

📌 Overview & Macro Sentiment

The week opened with a gap down, driven by geopolitical tensions and Moody’s U.S. credit rating downgrade headlines.

📰 No major economic data today, which means price action is driven by positioning, sentiment, and structure alone.

🔁 Recap of Monday’s Session

  • Globex opened weak, but NY flipped the script.

  • ES retested 5900, last week’s value area low.

  • From there, it ripped through 5944 VAH, tagging the 5992 resistance zone.

✅ Bulls reclaimed control into the close, turning a weak open into a textbook short-covering bounce.

📊 10-Day Volume Profile

  • OTFU remains intact (One Time Framing Up).

  • Value is stacking above March’s 5837, reinforcing bullish structure.

  • 🧭 Watch for acceptance above 5990 to unlock the next leg up.

10 Day

🗂️ Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Weekly: Value forming just above last week’s POC (5906).

  • Daily: P-profile forming, likely short covering.

💡 But without follow-through, it’s just a squeeze. We need real acceptance above 5990–6000 to confirm trend extension.

Weekly

daily

📈 Order Flow & Delta (2H View)

  • NY session stayed above weekly VWAP.

  • Sellers were absorbed beneath 5900 and flipped into fuel.

  • Key resistance zones at 5990+ still stand, we need confirmation to break them.

2 hr delta

🧱 NY TPO Structure

  • P-profile: classic short-covering shape.

  • NY opened inside last week’s range, now building a strong base.

  • If today opens above that range, it confirms buyer intent.

⏱️ 1-Hour Structure & Strike Prices

  • Strike prices are tightening—expect consolidation early on.

  • Long-term POC at 5906 is still a magnet.

  • Bulls must defend this zone to avoid deeper pullbacks.

🎯 Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📍 Line in the Sand: 5979

Bullish Targets:
→ 5990 → 6001 → 6012

Bearish Targets:
→ 5968 → 5957 → 5946

gameplan

⚠️ Final Thoughts & Warnings

  • No major data = trap potential: stay alert.

  • 📌 Don’t chase inside the range.

  • Let price confirm direction, and don’t give back Monday’s gains.

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Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

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