Clavis Trading
Posts
ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

Wednesday July 2. 2025

Jan Verhelst
July 02, 2025

In partnership with

1️⃣ Important News & Events

As with every Wednesday:

Crude Oil Inventory Report drops at 10:30 ET
This can impact risk sentiment and broad index behavior. Crude volatility may bleed into ES/NQ movement.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day – ESU25 Price Action

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-07-01	6245.75	6261.50	6227.25	6248.75	–0.08%	1,320,618
2025-07-02	6247.75	6270.75	6245.00	6257.00	+0.13%	50,520

📌 Key Takeaways:

Inside day post-breakout
Low volume → No strong conviction
Buyers slowly testing upside into 6270.75
Prior LIS now tested as support

The Secret Weapon for HR

The best HR advice comes from people who’ve been in the trenches.

That’s what this newsletter delivers.

I Hate it Here is your insider’s guide to surviving and thriving in HR, from someone who’s been there. It’s not about theory or buzzwords — it’s about practical, real-world advice for navigating everything from tricky managers to messy policies.

Every newsletter is written by Hebba Youssef — a Chief People Officer who’s seen it all and is here to share what actually works (and what doesn’t). We’re talking real talk, real strategies, and real support — all with a side of humor to keep you sane.

Because HR shouldn’t feel like a thankless job. And you shouldn’t feel alone in it.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile Insight

OTFU still intact
Globex broke to new all-time highs (6270.75)
Profile structure unchanged → still elongated and bullish
Lack of acceptance above ATH may cause a retrace if momentum fades

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Weekly: Balanced and narrow OTFU
Daily: Price coiling at highs, searching for follow-through
Globex breakout needs validation in RTH
Price is accumulating energy for the next directional push

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

VWAP is flat, signaling indecision
Order flow remained aligned with structure yesterday
Expect clarity only after RTH open confirms either breakout or rejection

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

NY left a balanced inside day
Watch for break above or below yesterday’s value area
Acceptance outside of value signals trend ignition
A third balanced day would suggest absorption before expansion

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Monthly and weekly VWAP both flat → compression phase
Strike zones are tightening
Currently trading between heavy call walls 6250 → 6270 → 6300
This compression could unwind into a volatility event

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🧠 Pre-Market Gameplan – July 2, 2025

🎯 LIS: 6254.00
→ Execute with discipline around this line

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Hold above LIS → target +1σ (6271.42)
Break +1σ → test +3σ (6306.50)
Squeeze above → Call Wall at 6250, ultimate fade zone: MAX ALPHA = 6350–6375

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Rejection 6270–6275 → fade back toward LIS 6254
Below LIS → target –1σ (6236.33)
Breach of –1σ → opens path to –2σ (6218.79) and –3σ (6201.25)

⚔️ Strategic Notes:
✅ Max Alpha = 6350
→ Used for aggressive reversion or smart fades on exhaustion

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

Low volume + compression = trap potential is high.
Don’t chase. Wait for RTH to confirm intent.
Globex ATHs are meaningless unless they hold during cash hours.
Stick to LIS structure. Let the market tip its hand.