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ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Jan Verhelst
June 25, 2025

The market pauses before it chooses. Wait. Watch. Strike with clarity.

1️⃣ Important News & Events

Stay alert for three key catalysts today:

Crude Oil Inventory Data
New Home Sales Report
Fed Chair Powell speaks again

We’re in thin air with low conviction volume, any surprise from Powell could send shockwaves.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

📈 Price History Summary (ESU25)

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-06-24	6078.00	6155.25	6075.25	6146.25	+1.14%	1,077,333
2025-06-25	6144.75	6149.75	6138.25	6146.00	0.00%	48,038

📌 Key Takeaways:

Globex printed a textbook consolidation below 6150 after Tuesday’s strong up move.
Price anchored at 6146, with sharply declining volume = indecision.
Today is coil compression mode before news hits.
Fed’s Powell Testifies 30 mins after RTH Open

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Balanced structure forming above March’s VAH—a zone we failed to reclaim for months.

Gap-up now forming new structure above.
Holding 6127 is key, lose that and the breakout fades into balance again.
The edge sits right here.

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Elongated weekly profile forming with lots of LVNs, expect thin liquidity and fast moves once imbalance starts.
Still eyeing range high around 6171.
Globex = dead calm, just 12 points of range. RTH will decide if we break or fake.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

Price is camping far above weekly VWAP, with zero interest below +1σ.
Sellers absent. Buyers passive.
Expect violent repricing when one side wakes up.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Yesterday’s drive up came on low volume, and we’re building a very tight MVA.
A fakeout is possible.
Opening below 6129 would be the first sign of sellers trying to regain control.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Trend is still technically intact as ES leaves a 15-day balance.
But OI and strikes are now clustered between 6100–6150, indicating hesitation.
Call interest stacked at 6225–6300.
Market may probe these levels if bulls hold control.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Gameplan Structure (Pre-Market for June 25, 2025)

🎯 LIS: 6141.00
Use this as the control zone, wait for retests with order flow confirmation before executing.

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Hold above LIS →
- Target +1σ = 6159
- Push to +3σ = 6195
If continuation breaks above 6195 →
- Test Call Wall @ 6225
- Overshoot could hit Max Alpha = 6250

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Rejection at 6150 zone → fade back to +1σ → LIS
Below –1σ (6122) opens:
- –2σ = 6104
- –3σ = 6086

⚔️ Strategic Notes
✅ Max Alpha = 6250
→ Use this level as prime reversal territory if price explodes without support.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

This is trap territory.
Low volume. High complacency. False breakouts likely.
Play only confirmed continuation or deep fades from extremes.
Avoid initiating new positions in the chop zone between 6127–6150.