ES Futures Gameplan

Tuesday, April 1st

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 01, 2025

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📺 Watch the Breakdown on YouTube (4 mins):
https://youtu.be/g8IdBN14YTM

Welcome to Q2 – Let’s Get to Work

New quarter. New charts. Same market games.
Today we’re looking at a stacked macro calendar:

  • S&P Manufacturing PMI

  • ISM Manufacturing

  • JOLTS Job Openings

All dropping 30 minutes into the NY open.
Expect immediate reactions. Whipsaws likely. This is not the moment to get emotional or oversized.

Recap of Monday – Textbook Reversal

  • Gap down to 5590, sliced into 5551, and immediately reversed.

  • Buyers showed up with precision, reclaimed VWAP, and ripped through all upside targets.

  • Closed near highs—structure reclaimed, momentum shifted.

This was not random—it was a targeted liquidity grab followed by controlled accumulation. Bulls played it perfectly.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • ES dropped below August’s POC (5551), but didn’t stay there long.

  • Now back inside familiar territory, with a new double distribution forming between 5617–5627.

  • Volume building around 5640—expect rotational battles around this node.

10 Day

Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Last week’s failed breakdown at 5586 = major shift.

  • Now back inside balance, but still below key resistance at 5665.

  • Bulls have momentum, but structure favors caution until we break above the congestion.

Weekly structure with daily candles

2H Delta & Order Flow

  • Monday showed aggressive delta buying from the lows.

  • VWAP flipped support mid-session—sellers didn’t step back in until we approached 5665.

  • This level now becomes our pivot zone for continuation or rejection.

2hr Delta

NY TPO Structure

  • Opened below Friday’s value, tested lower, then reversed with power.

  • A clean single print formed at 5617—this is now short-term support.

  • Expect range development today above 5617 unless that level gets reclaimed by sellers.

1H Chart & Strike Prices

  • Strike range tightening: a sign we’re coiling for a decisive move.

  • Current band is sitting just above yesterday’s single print zone.

  • Watch for fake moves above 5665 and reactive liquidity around 5617–5640.

GamePlan

Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS: 5658 → Yesterday’s Excess Low + Volume Pivot

🟢 Bullish Playbook

Above 5658, buyers are in control.

  • Target 1: 5680 → Volume shelf + breakdown zone

  • Target 2: 5705 → Gamma magnet, psychological resistance

  • Target 3: 5718 → Last week’s close, high liquidity zone

🔴 Bearish Playbook

Below 5655, momentum fades and downside resumes.

  • Target 1: 5640 → Minor LVN + yesterday’s close

  • Target 2: 5617 → Weekly open + structural support

  • Target 3: 5600 → Big round number + gamma pressure

Fade weak breakouts and target responsive zones.

🧠 Final Thoughts – Don’t Be the Liquidity

  • News hits at Open : don’t be the one providing exit liquidity.

  • Let the first move settle. No rush. Wait for confirmation at the LIS.

  • If we break 5665 with strength, bulls get a real shot at 5700+.

  • If we fail at 5655, expect a slow bleed back toward 5617 and below.

End of story: Stay sharp, stay mechanical, and don’t overcomplicate what’s already clear.

Catch you tomorrow for the next breakdown.

—
Jan
Marketflow Genius

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Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59
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