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ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

July 1 2025

Jan Verhelst
July 01, 2025

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See the game before it’s played.

1️⃣ Important News & Events

Today’s lineup can shift the landscape quickly:

Powell speaks
US JOLTS Job Openings
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI

Expect movement around 10:00 ET and during Powell’s appearance. Momentum can shift fast, stay on your toes.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day – ESU25 Price Action

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-06-30	6223.25	6265.50	6223.25	6253.75	+0.48%	1,364,101
2025-07-01	6245.75	6257.75	6238.00	6242.00	–0.19%	66,148

📌 Key Takeaways:

Weak volume follow-up after breakout
Sellers active above 6255
Tight range consolidation, indecision before today’s catalysts

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3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile Insight

The profile shows a very elongated P structure , continuation of bullish behavior.

Price is currently trading above VAH
Watch for exhaustion if price can’t build acceptance higher
Backfill into LVNs could offer premium entries for reactive traders

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Weekly: OTFU structure intact
Daily: Strong momentum candle clusters
We’ve extended 100% of weekly VA range → Next major magnet = 6335
The trend is up, but don’t chase late into air pockets

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

June closed with force: both +2σ and +3σ VWAP deviations taken out
Absorption just under 6260 suggests buyer fatigue
Watch for delta divergence if new highs fail to carry order flow

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Structure is OTFU with improving volume distribution
As we go higher, TPOs are becoming more balanced
Globex is neutral → wait for RTH to confirm direction
Strong excess has not yet appeared so bulls still in control (for now)

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

New month, new VWAPs
We’re trading inside an LVN zone, but bouncing off the Put Wall at 6240
This adds supportive skew, helping bulls if 6240 holds

📌 Strike Activity:

High OI & Delta Skew between 6240–6300
Heavy call buildup at 6300 / 6325 / 6350
IV slightly elevated near the money → traders pricing in movement

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🧠 Pre-Market Structure – July 1, 2025

🎯 LIS: 6244.25 → Key inflection point. Play reactive.

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Hold above LIS → target +1σ (6261.63)
Break +1σ → target +3σ (6296.63)
Sustained squeeze → test Call Wall at 6275, then aim for MAX ALPHA zone 6350

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Rejection near 6260–6270 → fade back toward –1σ (6226.62)
Break below –1σ opens runway to –2σ (6209.12) → then –3σ (6191.62)

⚔️ Strategic Notes:
✅ Max Alpha Zone = 6350
→ High-probability reversal area. Use for calculated fades or sniper trap setups.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

We’re starting a new quarter. Expect repositioning from larger players.
Avoid early overreaction. The first move may be a head fake—today’s tone will be set after Powell.

Wait for confirmation. The edge is in timing, not prediction.