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ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

Thursday July 3, 2025

Jan Verhelst
July 03, 2025

1️⃣ Important News & Events

Today is data overload.
Why? Because markets are closed tomorrow (Independence Day).
So we get it all at once:

🇨🇦 Canadian Trade Balance
🇺🇸 U.S. Unemployment Rate
🧨 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
💰 Average Hourly Earnings
📦 U.S. Trade Balance
🏭 S&P PMI Finals + U.S. Factory Orders

Expect violent moves at open and into the data windows.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day – ESU25 Price Action

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-07-02	6247.75	6279.50	6235.50	6275.00	+0.42%	1,044,261
2025-07-03	6276.50	6285.00	6270.50	6284.50	+0.15%	36,140

📌 Key Takeaways:

Pre-holiday volume = dead.
Tight, controlled range with slow bullish grind.
Buyers defending 6270 and walking price up.
No impulsive moves yet but the trend is intact.

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

New VP forming for end of the week
Shape: Balanced and narrow, indicating compression
Volume building above previous VAH → bullish development
Watching for expansion out of this coil

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Weekly + Daily = OTFU
Daily shows grinding low-volume trend
Key zone: 6256 → expect support if retested
New high = 6285 → bulls still in control until proven otherwise

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

Sellers attempted to break VWAP but got trapped
Price still flirting with 3rd deviation on weekly VWAP
Watch delta divergence around 6294+ if bulls hesitate there
No strong initiative selling = trend intact

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Open-Test-Drive → Continuation day
Left behind single prints at 6251
Globex held 6270 → buyers remain in command
NY open above 6270 is bullish continuation signal

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Trend: Still grinding higher
Strike prices widening due to massive data day
Implied volatility neutral but structure says be ready for explosive expansion
Heavy cluster around 6275–6280

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 Strikes 6270–6280 show highest volume, OI, and delta skew.

Heavy call interest stacked at:
6275.00 / 6280.00 / 6300.00+

Implied Volatility: Neutral pre-open, but sensitive to data.

🧠 Pre-Market Game Plan – July 3, 2025
🎯 LIS: 6277.00
→ Build scenarios around this line in the sand.

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Support at LIS → Target +1σ (6294.25)
Breach +1σ → Run to +3σ (6329.00)
If continuation squeeze hits → watch MAX ALPHA zone = 6350–6375

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Rejection at resistance zone (6294–6300) → fade toward LIS
Below LIS → aim for –1σ (6259.50)
Breach of –1σ → slide to –2σ (6242.00) then –3σ (6224.75)

⚔️ Strategic Notes:
✅ Max Alpha = 6375 → Be surgical. Ideal spot for reversals or profit-taking scalps.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

Volume is dead. But volatility is alive.
This is the classic calm before the macro storm.
Let the data shake the board first—then act.
Don’t pre-commit. Let the open define the narrative.

The edge today = discipline. reaction. clarity.