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ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

Monday, June 23, 2025

Jan Verhelst
June 23, 2025

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1️⃣ Important News & Events

Global tension surged this weekend after America bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating the already fragile Middle East situation.

Market-moving data today includes:

Existing Home Sales
S&P Services PMI

Risk is now both geopolitical and macro-driven. Traders should prep for fast re-pricing behavior in commodities and equity futures.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

📈 Price History Summary (ESU25)

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-06-20	5976.00	6037.75	5950.25	6032.25	+0.87%	962,226
2025-06-21	6030.00	6040.00	5994.00	6033.50	+0.02%	642,349

📌 Key Takeaways:
Globex opened with a gap down, but buyers showed up quickly this Monday morning, pushing price back inside value. The market is hesitant but supported, for now.

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3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Still OTFU as we continue to hold the upper side of prior value.

We’ve retested VAL, bounced, and now probing previous VAH.
Balance continues, but momentum is fragile.
A directional break from this coiling range could ignite larger flows later in the week.

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

The daily chart is balancing, weekly OTFD, but structure is testing last week’s POC area.
If buyers can reclaim that zone with size, we could rotate upward, but failure here signals continued breakdown risk.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

Friday's OPEX session remained orderly, consolidating near weekly VWAP
Today’s Globex gap down was quickly bought, showing early strength
Watch for sustained buying near VWAP, otherwise, this could be another failed bounce.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Friday's session left a clear selling tail near the top of the previous value range
Very narrow value area = compression → possible expansion today
Opening above: must chew through single prints near 6045 (monthly VWAP)
Opening below: could drive us toward 5986–5950 value pocket.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Call Wall parked at 6000, acting as a magnet and floor.
Price action must reclaim the 6041 single print zone to resume any bullish narrative
Rejection here could confirm a continued short-term downtrend.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

Gameplan Structure (Pre-Market for June 23, 2025)

🎯 LIS: 6025.25
Play reactive off this level with confirmation via DOM, Delta, and Footprint.

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Support at LIS →
- Target +1σ = 6045.75
- Then +3σ = 6087.25
Squeeze potential toward:
- Call Wall @ 6050
- MAX ALPHA @ 6175.00

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Rejection at resistance zone → fade toward LIS
Breakdown below –1σ (6004.50) →
- –2σ = 5983.75
- –3σ = 5963

⚔️ Strategic Notes
✅ MAX ALPHA = 6175.00 → prime spot for fade setups or reactive reversal if price extends.
🚫 Avoid trades directly at LIS unless confirmed by stacked delta or clear DOM aggression.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

We open the week under geopolitical stress and macro uncertainty.
Don’t chase green candles. Wait for confirmation.
Let volume and delta lead your entries. We are in a rangebound warzone. Stay sharp, stay tactical.

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