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ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

Monday, 16 June 2025

Jan Verhelst
June 16, 2025

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1️⃣ Important News & Events

Welcome to rollover week , futures will transition from June (ESM25) to September (ESU25).
Watch for liquidity shifts, contract divergences, and open interest spikes.

📌 Trading tip: Stick with ESM25 until ESU25 volume + OI surpass it. Expect some noise, traps, and irregular DOM/tape behavior.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	% Change	Volume
2025-06-13	6045.00	6045.00	5927.50	5979.25	-1.16%	2,051,514
2025-06-16	5949.00	6015.50	5944.00	6008.25	+0.49%	89,198

Key Takeaways:

Friday was a high-volume selloff day (DD down).
Monday opened weak but pushed back above 6000, tagging +3σ (5995) before stalling at MAX ALPHA (6015).
The reclaim of 6000 may be bullish if accepted, but this could also be a fade trap.

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3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Structure is OTFU, but volume is rebuilding inside the 6005–6049 VA.
If price can accept above 6025, it would signal renewed upside intent.

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Currently TOFU (Trend Opening, Failure to Follow Through):

This week’s open at 5949 did not take out last week’s low.
Watch last week’s Value Area (6005/6049) as a battle zone , strength above, weakness below.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

Friday’s selloff held firmly below VWAP, with clear signs of sell absorption under 5975.
A retest of that zone today could be the true test of buyer interest , eyes on delta shifts and CVD reversal there.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Friday formed a Double Distribution with heavy selling.

Broke OTFU.
Next bear target is 5915 if buyers don’t step in.
A NY open above 6013 flips the script back to bullish continuation.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Trend has shifted.
Now forming a new A to B range: 5928 (Low) → 6050 (High).

6000 LVN = key POI for rotation.
Acceptance above 6025 puts strike walls at risk and can cause dealer-led pushes.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 LIS (Line in the Sand): 5978.25
→ All decisions pivot around this level. Stay reactive.

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Risk Warnings

Caution around VWAP cross + LIS reaction.
If stuck between 5978–5990 with mixed delta, stand down — this zone may act as a liquidity trap.
Remember: it's rollover week. Be extra patient, scale risk down, and confirm with flow before acting.

Gameplan Structure (Pre-Market for 16/06)

🎯 LIS: 5978.25

(Play reactive off this level)

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Support at LIS → target +1σ (5983.84), then +3σ (5995.01)
Continuation squeeze → test Call Wall @ 6025 / MAX ALPHA 6015 (strong resistance)