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ES Futures Gameplan

ES Futures Gameplan

June 17, 2025

Jan Verhelst
June 17, 2025

In partnership with

1️⃣ Important News & Events

Today brings U.S. Retail Sales so expect intraday volatility around the release.
FOMC tomorrow → traders may de-risk or position in advance.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

Price History Summary (ESU25)

Date | Open | High | Low | Close | % Change | Volume 2025-06-14 | 6001.00| 6109.00| 6000.00| 6089.75 | +0.97% | 1,919,981 2025-06-17 | 6093.00| 6093.50| 6045.25| 6056.25 | –0.55% | 130,407

📌 Key Takeaways:
Monday swept key GEX zones below 6025 before stalling near 6103 (VAH June 11–12).
Tuesday opened inside prior value, rotated lower into structure near 6060 (YVAH), showing absorption.

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3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Still OTFU, with buyers interacting above prior VAHs 6026/6030.
To show true continuation, bulls must break and hold above 6104.
Failure to defend 6025 opens up downside imbalance.

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

Weekly OTFU, but upward momentum is stalling.
The fight to reclaim the Q4 2024 breakout zone is losing traction.
Bulls must break decisively above 6104–6110, or risk reversal into balance.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

As forecasted, the 6026 sell zone acted as resistance.
Monday opened at 6001, rallied through sell zones, but volume shifted at VWAP, showing order flow rejection into value.
Keep an eye on delta divergence as we re-approach 6030–6035.

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

Open Drive on Monday gave retail clean pullbacks to enter longs.
NY closed at 6089 POC, now forming balanced structure.
Today’s open relative to that value area will signal whether bulls maintain control or not.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

No clear trend , ES is ranging around Monthly VWAP, no directional edge.
This is typical ahead of FOMC. Stay patient and let structure develop.
Strikes & gamma zones remain congested ,no clean squeeze levels yet.

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

Gameplan Structure (Pre-Market for 17/06)
🎯 LIS: 6018.25
(Play reactive off this level)

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

Support at LIS → target +1σ (6022.28), then +3σ (6030.34)
Continuation squeeze → test Call Wall @ 6000 / MAX ALPHA 6035

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

Failure at 6025–6030 → fade toward 6014–6010
Below –1σ (6014.22) opens path to –2σ (6010.19), then –3σ (6006.16)

⚔️ Strategic Notes
✅ Max Alpha = 6035 → use for high-probability fade or reactive reversal
🚫 Avoid trades at LIS unless clear delta/DOM confirmation

9️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

Markets are coiling before tomorrow’s FOMC. Don’t overtrade chop.
Wait for the level that gives you edge: confirmation, conviction, continuation.

🔍 What Is VOMA?

VOMA (Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer) is our custom-built precision system.
It blends options data (GEX, strikes, IV) with volume, delta, and liquidity maps
to generate high-probability trade levels and strategic execution plans.

We use it daily inside our Discord, combining VOMA levels with live DOM, footprint, and VWAP tactics.