ES Futures Daily Outlook

Monday, July 14, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
July 14, 2025

1️⃣ Important News & Events

📌 No Major Economic Releases Today
However...
⚠️ Earnings Season Has Begun
Today marks the official kickoff of Q2 earnings season.
→ Major banks start reporting this week
→ Expect irregular flows, sudden rebalancing, and hedging
→ From now until early August, institutional order flow may override technical setups

This macro shift in context is critical. VOMA traders should stay reactive, not predictive.

2️⃣ Recap of Previous Day (Friday, July 12)

  • Friday gave us a classic value retest day, rotating cleanly inside Wednesday’s Value Area

  • Globex opened with a gap down, slicing below:

    • Monthly VWAP

    • Friday’s entire Value Area
      → This setup aligns exactly with Friday’s warning in the Weekly Outlook

→ Context = Defensive unless we reclaim the prior week’s POC zones

Date      

Open   

High   

Low    

Close  

% Change

Volume  

2025-07-11

6306.00

6312.25

6287.50

6298.75

–0.13%  

63,568  

2025-07-12

6289.75

6290.00

6252.75

6269.25

–0.47%  

45,237  

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • Still OTFU (One Time Frame Up) on structure, but…
    → Now testing VAL and prior HVN cluster near 6265
    → Re-acceptance below that invites a move back toward 6230
    → Key test zone = 6265–6270

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Week opened right inside prior 2-week VAL (6270/6265)

  • Daily opens below structure and VWAP = bear tilt
    → Eyes on acceptance or rejection at PWVAH (6290–6294)
    → Structure is compressing. Direction will emerge with volume.

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Last week’s 6300 battle just got vaporized with this morning’s 15-handle gap down
    → Signals a potential shift in sentiment

  • Watch 6300 all week as the "ghost battleground" for initiative buyers
    → Who defends, who retreats?

6️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Last week’s RTH printed a 6-day composite range
    → With poor highs and poor lows = unfinished business at both extremes

  • Current action opens below the composite → Opportunity for range expansion trades
    → Both sides exposed , stay tactical.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Monday opens below:

    • Monthly VWAP

    • Big seller absorption zone @ 6289
      → Combined with structure, this hints at a trend shift forming
      → Options map:

    • Highest OI & volume at 6300, 6275, 6250, 6200, 6350

    • IV: Elevated between 29.5%–30.7%

8️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

🎯 LIS: 6310.00
(Play reactions around this level, adjust if price fails to approach)

🔼 Bullish Scenarios

  • Reclaim LIS → push to +1σ 6326.00, then +3σ 6358.74

  • Squeeze through 6325 opens Call Wall @ 6375.00
    → Max Alpha = 6400.00 is high-reward fade zone

🔽 Bearish Scenarios

  • Fail at 6275–6282 → trigger fade toward –1σ 6293.25

  • Break below –1σ exposes –2σ 6276.88, then –3σ 6260.51
    → Big move likely if earnings reactions remain bearish

⚔️ Strategic Notes

✅ Max Alpha = 6400.00 → Use this level for high-reward countertrend setups
✅ Stay defensive around gaps and post-earnings reactions
✅ Watch VWAP rejections and reactive zones — volume commitment matters

🧠 What Is VOMA?

VOMA (Volume Orderflow Market Analyzer) is not an indicator.
It’s a full market attack system built on 5 integrated components:

  1. Volume Profile Intelligence – Weekly, Daily, and 10-Day context tracking

  2. Order Flow Confirmation – DOM, Delta, Footprint execution precision

  3. LIS (Line in Sand) Strategy – Real-time trade bias and defense control

  4. Options Positioning – GEX, Open Interest Walls, Strike Sentiment

  5. Execution Playbook – Structured entry/exit models with strict risk logic

Clarity + Context + Confirmation = Conviction.
That’s what VOMA gives you.

💥 Trade With Precision – Join the Free Discord

🔐 Want pre-market gameplans, daily LIS updates, and real-time trade levels?
Join the private MarketFlow Discord community (partially free):
→ 🎯 Daily VOMA Maps
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→ 🧠 Execution Models Shared & Reviewed
→ 👥 Built for serious ES Futures Traders


Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59