ES Futures Daily Breakdown

Friday, April 25, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
April 25, 2025

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Good morning, pros.
It’s Friday, and while the calendar’s light, the market never sleeps on a Friday fade. Yesterday’s session flipped momentum hard—structure has shifted. Let’s dissect it all.

1️⃣ Important News & Events

No major economic releases today.
But don’t get cozy—Fridays love fake breakouts and sudden reversals. Stay sharp.

2️⃣ Thursday Recap – Bullish Inventory Flip

  • ES retested Wednesday’s gap, swept liquidity, then pushed through April 10 & 14 highs.

  • 10-day POC jumped 64 points, flipping the short-term read to neutral-to-bullish.

  • Clean reversal of the one-time framing down structure.

📈 Bulls reclaimed control. The question is: can they keep it?

3️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

  • POC rose from the ashes—+64 points higher.

  • We’re now building healthy value above 5528.

  • This level = bull defense line. If it holds → we explore August’s value range.

10 Day VP

4️⃣ Weekly & Daily Structure

  • Daily OTFU resumed, breaking through 5250.

  • Weekly structure shifted into early uptrend mode.

  • We’re inside a low-volume node (LVN) between 5520–5620 → this is the battleground zone.

Weekly and Daily

5️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2-Hour Chart)

  • Buyers showed passive strength at 5373.

  • Above 5500, demand became aggressive.

  • 5525 call wall acted as a speed bump.
    → If bulls clear this cleanly, expect a march to 5564 and beyond.

6️⃣ NY TPO Session Structure

  • Double distribution day.

  • Strong open-range retest, followed by a close above last week’s high.

  • Structure says buyers are driving, but only as long as they hold that 5520 zone.

7️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • We’re 120 points above Thursday’s lows.

  • Tight clustering below 5500 shows where shorts are hiding.

  • Globex gap at 5564 is glowing. Don’t be shocked if price probes that zone quickly.

🎯 Game Plan – Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5520
(Monthly VWAP deviation + key LVN)

🐂 Bull Targets
→ 5545 (volume ledge)
→ 5570 (HTF resistance)
→ 5598 (weekly profile top)

🐻 Bear Targets
→ 5500 (psychological level)
→ 5475 (volume cluster)
→ 5452 (retracement support)

⚠️ Final Thoughts – Protect Your Profits

It’s Friday. You don’t need to be a hero.
If the trade setup isn’t clean, clear, and structured, step aside.
Lock in the green. Guard your capital. That’s how pros play Fridays.

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See you Sunday for the full Weekly Outlook—fresh levels, refined structure, and tactical setups for every kind of market.

Trade clean. Stay ruthless. Finish strong.

—
Jan | Marketflow Genius

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