ES Friday Market Breakdown

March 14 | The Battle for Control Continues

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 14, 2025

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Recap of yesterdays Gameplan: All downside targets hit.

Yesterdays Gameplan

The week may be ending, but the market isn’t slowing down. ES continues its downward spiral, breaking structures at 5533 and hitting all major bear targets. With 5313 as the next big level, the question is: do sellers keep control, or are buyers ready to step in?

 Today, we stay sharp. Liquidity sweeps and failed breakouts are trapping traders left and right. Let’s break it all down.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • More volume building below 5630.

  • Value Area Low now at 5621—possible bull target.

  • POC from August at 5475 is a major downside level.

  • Double distribution forming—if buyers reclaim value, expect a strong rally.

10 Day VP

Weekly & Daily Structure

  • B-shape volume profile suggests market conditions might be shifting.

  • Liquidity sweeps & failed breakouts trapping traders on lower timeframes.

  • Holding inside the August-September value area (5543-5575) is key to avoid further downside.

Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • ES stayed below weekly VWAP—no breakout attempts.

  • Some responsive buying at 5525, but price keeps closing lower, meaning sellers are still in control.

NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Classic Open Test Drive into yesterday’s POC—no effort to push higher.

  • OR extended downward and found balance—poor lows signal more downside potential.

2Hr Delta

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Possible Failed Breakdown (FBD) below 5552—watch for traps.

  • New Lower Highs, breaking previous lows—downtrend still strong.

  • Strike price range: 5650 High, 5500 Low.

Expect potential fakeouts: It’s Friday!

Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

LIS: 5562 (Yesterday’s NY VAH & Downside Ledge)

📈 Bullish Plan:

  • Hold above 5562 and look for higher timeframe value.

  • Longs from 5572 → 5585 (LVN) → 5598 (HVN) → 5618 (Weekly POC).

📉 Bearish Plan:

  • Stay below 5562 for continued downside pressure.

  • Shorts from 5558 → 5542 → 5514 → 5500.

    Gameplan and Levels

No need to force trades—wait for clean setups.

Final Thoughts & Warnings

🚨 It’s Friday: PROTECT YOUR PROFITS. ðŸš¨

📌 If unsure, step aside—better to enjoy your weekend early than to regret a bad trade. ðŸ“Œ Watch for fakeouts: Friday is a trap-heavy day. 📌 Stay patient, trade smart, and I’ll see you Sunday for an extended weekly outlook!

📩 Share this newsletter: Forward this to a trader who needs this breakdown.

🔔 Stay Updated: A fresh market summary drops daily—don’t miss Monday’s recap!

Trade safe. See you in the trenches.

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