ES Daily Market Game Plan

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Author

Jan Verhelst
May 22, 2025

Learn how to make AI work for you

AI won’t take your job, but a person using AI might. That’s why 1,000,000+ professionals read The Rundown AI – the free newsletter that keeps you updated on the latest AI news and teaches you how to use it in just 5 minutes a day.

🔥 Market Opens Into a Battlefield

We’re heading into a packed session with:

  • Jobless Claims

  • S&P Flash PMI

  • U.S. Home Sales

All dropping this morning. Buckle up. These could hit just as the market opens and if yesterday taught us anything, it’s that sentiment can shift fast.

📉 1️⃣ Recap of Previous Day

What started as a typical inside day above 5906 collapsed fast.
A weak U.S. bond auction, rising Treasury yields, and a Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade triggered a full risk-off flush.

📉 Result?
S&P 500 dropped -1.6%, with ES losing its footing and nuking support zones on the way down.

📊 2️⃣ 10-Day Volume Profile

Technically we’re still OTFU, believe it or not…
But structure is shaky, and we’re coiling inside March’s value area.
Today, 5828 is the critical line , hold it, and bulls breathe. Lose it, and we open the trapdoor.

10 Days

🗂 3️⃣ Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Weekly is testing last week’s Value Area Low.

  • Daily flipped from OTFU to OTFD , a clear reversal.

  • The battlefield now? Monday’s POC at 5828. Price is hovering. Watch it closely.

💹 4️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H View)

Buyers tried near VWAP, but it was weak.
Sellers controlled the tape and sent ES straight down into the close.
Momentum is now bearish unless bulls reclaim structure fast.

🗽 5️⃣ NY TPO & Session Structure

→ Yesterday broke the Double Distribution and cracked the 5912 ledge.
→ Price gravitated back toward Monday’s POC and for good reason.
💡 POCs are magnets. Until invalidated, they pull price back.

🕰 6️⃣ 1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

Narrow cluster of strike interest sitting right on 5906.
Guess what else is there?
→ Single prints from Wednesday.
→ March’s VWAP extension.
You think that’s coincidence? It’s your wall.

🧠 7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📍 Line in the Sand (LIS): 5858
Our pivot zone for structure and bias today.

🔼 Bullish Targets
→ 5870 → 5882 → 5895

🔽 Bearish Targets
→ 5846 → 5834 → 5822

🚨 8️⃣ Final Thoughts & Warnings

📈 Bond yields are ripping.
That’s never good for risk assets.
If you're trading equities, respect the structure. Don’t try to outsmart macro forces.

🛡️ Today’s motto:
Trade the levels, not your bias.

Are You Bearish or Bullish Today

What are your expectations

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.


Jan @ Clavis Trading
Smart setups. Clean structure.

My Links Sign Up for my newsletter https://clavis-trading.beehiiv.com/subscribe 

Discord channel: https://whop.com/clavis-2/ 

Tradezella Trading journal: https://tradezella.com?fpr=jan59 

Bulenox Propfirm (trusted): https://bulenox.com/member/aff/go/renkoflowsi=ueoG0mVKvaABNy6O