ES Daily Market Breakdown

March 12 | CPI DAY : Expect Chaos!

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 12, 2025

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🚨 Markets are primed for their most volatile session of the week. Today isn’t just another trading day, CPI, OPEC, BOC rate decision, and crude oil inventories are all stacked up.

 This is NOT the day to be reckless. Expect wild swings, fakeouts, and increased risk. If there’s ever a day to stick to your plan and size down, it’s today.

Important News & Events – High-Impact Day

  • 🔥 CPI Report – Market-moving data incoming. Expect aggressive reactions.

  • OPEC Report – Oil volatility could spill into equities.

  • BOC Rate Decision – May shake up risk assets.

  • Crude Oil Inventories – Could trigger sudden swings.

High-risk day. Adjust size and risk accordingly. Stay Flexible.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • Value Area Low (VAL) dropped another 28 points, bringing price below September’s range and back into August’s volume profile.

  • Major volume cluster forming below 5630—this is the key battleground for today.

    10Day VP

Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Both Weekly & Daily remain One Time Framing Down (OTFD).

  • Daily OTFD break target: 5651.75.

  • Weekly POC at 5620 – This will be a reaction zone.

  • Now trading below last week’s 100% range extension – Markets are in full discovery mode.

4️⃣ Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Sellers defended 5650, keeping downside pressure intact.

  • Buyers stepped in around 5570, but no confirmed breakout yet.

  • Weekly VWAP continues dropping , No signs of absorption yet.

2hr Delta Chart

NY TPO & Session Structure

  • POC Test: Yesterday tested 5628 and filled the 5645 volume gap.

  • Weak Close: Market closed below yesterday’s VAL—sellers remain in control.

  • Key Watch: An open above 5583 suggests early buyers attempting to step in.

First-hour reaction will set the tone—stay adaptive.

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Downtrend still strong – Lower highs (LH), break of structure (BOS), and lower lows (LL).

  • Strike price range: 5700 (high), 5530 (low), midpoint at 5615.

7️⃣ Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5598 (Yesterday’s POC & LVN Ledge)

Bullish Plan:

  • Hold above 5598 for a push higher.

  • Longs from 5615 → 5642 → 5668 → 5700.

 Bearish Plan:

  • Stay below 5598 for further downside pressure.

  • Shorts from 5580 → 5557 (BOS) → 5525 → 5489.

📌 Volatility will be high: stick to structured trades only.

Gameplan Targets

Final Thoughts & Warnings

🚨 CPI Day – Expect Extreme Volatility! 🚨

Today’s rules for survival:

  • Do NOT force trades. Let setups come to you.

  • Size down . Don’t let volatility wreck your account.

  • Fakeouts WILL happen . Stay patient and flexible.

  • Revenge trading kills . One bad trade can erase days of gains.

👀 The real money is made by those who wait. Don’t be bait.

📩 Share this newsletter: Forward this to a trader who needs this game plan.

🔔 Stay Updated: A fresh market breakdown drops daily, don’t miss tomorrow’s CPI aftermath insights!

See you in the trenches.

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