ES Daily Market Breakdown

March 11

Author

Jan Verhelst
March 11, 2025

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ES Daily Market Breakdown – March 11

Another session, another drop. ES couldn’t hold 5750, sliced through 5720, and accelerated into 5574 (September 11 VAL). The market is now at a critical juncture—will buyers step in, or is this just another leg down?

Important News & Events

  • JOLTS data before open – Low expected impact, but always worth tracking.

10-Day Volume Profile

  • Volume now building below August’s VAL (5648).

  • A tight cluster forming between 5630-5610, aligning with September’s previous volume build-up.

  • This area could become a reaction zone—watch for potential buyers stepping in.

10 Day VP

Weekly & Daily Chart Structure

  • Still OTFD with Monday’s high at 5757.75.

  • September’s POC (5608) tested but closed above.

  • Another 100-point drop in value—stay cautious with longs without higher timeframe confirmation.

Order Flow & Delta (2H Chart)

  • Selling pressure ramped up below 5720.

  • Weekly VWAP dropped another 100 points, indicating continued distribution.

  • No real buy pressure yet—reaction zones at 5608 and 5630-5610.

2HR Delta

NY TPO & Session Structure

  • Ultimate range extension—failed to return to value.

  • An open above 5724 would suggest balance, but below 5628 could continue the trend.

  • Lots of poor structure remains below 5605—watch for clean-up moves.

1-Hour Chart & Strike Prices

  • Volume cluster forming in the 5608-5624 region.

  • Strike price high: 5700, low: 5600.

  • If we open below 5700, the trend likely stays bearish—watch for reactions.

Game Plan: Bulls vs. Bears

📌 LIS: 5608 (September POC & Volume Build Zone)

Bullish Plan:

  • Hold above 5608 and attempt to reclaim yesterday’s POC (5624).

  • Longs from 5624 → 5663 → 5682 → 5700.

Bearish Plan:

  • Stay below 5608, confirming sellers in control.

  • Shorts from 5600 → 5571 → 5542 → 5525.

📌 Shorts remain safer unless buyers reclaim 5624+.

Targets and Structure

Final Thoughts & Warnings

This is a brutal downtrend. If you’re struggling with trades, you don’t have to participate.

If you do trade:

  • Size down.

  • Avoid longs without HTF confirmation.

  • Adjust risk for increased volatility.

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Be smart, be safe. See you in the trenches.